Economy: And then the fall was also sold as a success by the government

“It’s going to be closer to five than six,” Viktor Orbán predicted two weeks ago, how much he expects the Hungarian economy to decline, and this week it turned out that he probably didn’t read his prediction from a crystal ball, but from statistics. data. The CSO announced Tuesday that gross domestic product (GDP) fell 5.1 percent in 2020. The statistical office cautioned against the accuracy of the data, which is explained by larger-than-usual uncertainties. In any case, the Ministry of Finance has already recorded as a success of the Hungarian crisis management that the decline in Hungary was less than the EU average.

Of course, we can hardly speak of a great success even if, in “peacetime”, the government considers growth to be 2 percentage points higher than in the EU27; this time Eurostat predicted a 6.8 percent drop for the EU as a whole. In light of that, of course, we can be glad that even at the end of last year the government spoke of a decrease of more than 6 percent, but it is not yet clear when life can start again and with it, real growth. .

However, this was not the only unpleasant figure this week: it turned out that the construction industry ended a dismal year, while public debt rose to more than 80 percent at the end of 2020, the last time it was in the time of the Ferenc. Gyurcsány before the Orbán government declared war on the debt. It is worth mentioning that the structure of the economy and debt is also quite different, and that the EU is lenient with the current crisis.

Although the crisis is not over yet, Viktor Orbán has already ruled in parliament on the restart of the economy. Not much has been revealed compared to the usual self-praise, although it was certainly notable that when Ferenc Gyurcsány spoke about the lack of rattlesnakes, the prime minister began to cite the fall speech to plenary. In any case, Viktor Orbán made it clear that he envisions the development of the economy by supporting investments, most of which are made through so-called individual government decisions in Hungary, where the state mainly supports job creation. .

We have hidden the aggregation of subsidies for 2020 in this regard, showing that the state contributed a total of 4,123 jobs to large investment companies, costing taxpayers an average of HUF 16.3 million each.

In vain are these small businesses waiting for support, so the hosts, who have been in a difficult situation due to the closures that have been happening for months, are already thinking about survival strategies. We spoke with managers of two restaurants, for example, who see the future in technology that requires fewer people and cheaper ingredients: After reopening, we may see virgins on menus instead of sirloin.

Fashion companies are not in a better position either: the news came that this weekend Cosmos City will close its 20 stores in Hungary. However, the problem does not only affect them: Promod, Charles Vögele and Vagabond have also recently left Hungary.

And it’s likely to be longer – people bought the heater more during the epidemic. Also, in many cases, pre-existing problems have now emerged, but the fast fashion that dominates the fashion world can hardly be expected to regress in the next period.

Picture of the week: Jerusalem covered in snow. This is extremely rare on the edge of the desert.

Another major loser in the first wave of the epidemic was energy and, due to falling demand, crude oil was trading at a negative level. This is also reflected in the 2020 results published by Mol: although the oil company was able to maintain profits in all its lines of business, it remained well below the level of the previous year.

However, the fact that the result (EBITDA) exceeded two billion dollars, and the company expects an even higher amount of $ 2.3 billion for this year, is due to the fact that the price of raw materials has returned to the pre-crisis level. and still no signs. permanent decline.

This can be seen not only in the Mol stock exchange flash report, but also in the gas stations: since last week, the average price of fuels has exceeded 400 forints, and the analyst who told hvg.hu He said we can hardly expect a cheaper price. in the near future.

We also dealt with a different type of oil this week – we wrote specifically about what to do with used cooking oil. Although it comes from the kitchen, it is a waste as dangerous as gasoline, if we spill it it also damages nature and the drain.

In our article, we gave advice on who to turn to with used frying oil.

However, we have every chance that, for a while, even the greatest adventure of our lives will be to remove the burnt oil that remains after the meat is dumped to a collection point. The administration of coronavirus vaccines remains slow in the European Union, including Hungary, and Russian vaccines have not helped so far, as the government claims.

Russian diplomacy is taking advantage of the stagnation in Western vaccine production and handcuffing its own product around the world. The only problem at the moment is that too many places are being promised, so there won’t be enough capacity to deliver everything on time, which means that kind of deadlock. This can also be seen in Hungary: Péter Szijjártó promised 600,000 doses for this month, instead 40,000 have arrived at the moment.

The epidemic is not enough, some companies may complain for other reasons: those who have undertaken an activity related to agriculture or the food industry, for example, may have been confronted by the Chamber of Agriculture, even with a fairly large membership bill. Rate. In 2020, for the first time, the chamber itself calculated the rate and asked for a number; it is a small consolation that the debt can be paid with a credit card.

The contribution must be paid not only to the Chamber of Agriculture, but also to the county chamber, which then forwards one-tenth of the mandatory fee of HUF 5,000 to MKIK. Now we can find out what the organization led by László Parragh is spending this money on. The published contracts of more than two million guilders revealed that NER’s favorite companies also received 3 billion guilders of the chamber’s assets, but did not regret the money for trips to Brazil.

It also shows: the pandemic does not affect everyone equally: we compared the Forbes list of rich people this year with previous ones, and we saw that there were entrepreneurs who were able to increase their wealth tenfold in a few years. This is László Szjjj, who made the news in 2020 by photographing Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó on his yacht, the friendly visit raised doubts because Belt companies were able to gain weight mainly from state mandates.

The big winner, of course, is not Belt, but his business partner, the nation’s gas installer, Lőrinc Mészáros, who was able to increase his wealth by 70 billion even in last year’s crisis, which is already approaching the 500 billion.

Of course, you don’t necessarily need a government mandate for someone to get rich quick – the price of bitcoin has hit an all-time high this week – the best-known cryptocurrency has traded above $ 50,000. This represents an increase of more than 70 percent from the beginning of the year alone.

However, a survey published by GKI one week also revealed that many people are not so lucky in Hungarian society. Almost a quarter (23%) of the total income of the population was in the hands of the richest 10% and 50% of the richest 30%, but even more surprising is the fact that even at the peak of economic growth, more than 2 million Hungarian citizens or, in the case of families with one child, had a monthly income of less than HUF 81,000 per capita).