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Armed Nagorno-Karabakh woke up to a shooting Sunday: Armenia said Azerbaijan had carried out an airstrike in the region, while Baku said it launched a counterattack in response to a military provocation.
Tensions have not abated since then, and the number of victims is constantly increasing. Azerbaijan claims 550 bodies were killed, Yerevan says 200 Azeris were killed, but both countries deny allegations of their losses. Independent observer organizations estimate that at least hundreds have died in recent days, including many civilians.
This is not the first time the two countries have fought bloody battles in Nagorno-Karabakh, but it may be the last. More recently, in 2016, 200 people died in the so-called Four-Day War, but finally they laid down their arms. Now there are no signs of this, and if a ceasefire is not achieved despite diplomatic pressure, an irreversible war could begin in the area at any moment.
My a vita oka?
Today, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been under pressure for centuries from great powers such as Russia, the Ottoman Empire, and the Persian Empire. The two nations, fighting for their independence, deteriorated for the first time at the end of the First World War.
Nagorno-Karabakh has played a central role in the conflict from the beginning, with many Armenian and Azerbaijani communities living side by side in the region, and due to their identity, both sides have given the region an inescapable role.
After the Soviets annexed both states in 1921, Joseph Stalin sowed the seeds of contrast that continues to this day. He first gave Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan and then two years later, in 1923, he declared it an autonomous region, and after drawing the borders, 90 percent of the population was Armenian.
After this, for decades, apparent peace reigned in Nagorno-Karabakh until all hell broke out in 1988, when the two sides felt that the days of the Soviet Union were numbered. Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a war of independence, at which point their borders were highly prized. Armenians began to be massacred in Armenia and Armenians in Azerbaijan. A total of thirty thousand people died and one million people had to leave their homes until the parties agreed to a ceasefire in 1994.
The conflict is further complicated by another thread. It left a deep imprint on the Armenians that in 1915 the Ottoman regime massacred almost a million and a half of their compatriots, and the Azeris were always considered friends of Turkey and therefore hated even more.
To this day, the UN recognizes Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan and no state considers it an independent country.
Why right now?
As a result of the 2018 Armenian Revolution, the country has received a new government and hopes have been rekindled that the decade-long conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh will finally come to an end. However, since then it has been only a dream because Nikol Pasinjan The Armenian Prime Minister is resilient on the matter, retaining his predecessor’s harsh rhetoric towards Azerbaijan.
This spring, the Armenian government held elections in Nagorno-Karabakh, which Azerbaijan has interpreted as a clear provocation, prompting much criticism of Armenians internationally. This has led to several clashes between the parties in July, claiming more than a dozen casualties, but today the true catalyst for the battle is unknown. In just a few days, thousands of Azeris marched to the streets demanding an all-out war against Armenia.
The parties are also pointing fingers at each other over the current fighting, but experts say Azerbaijan could now see that the time for attack has come because the coronavirus epidemic has distracted outsiders from the region. They are fighting a second wave in Europe, Russia already has enough problems with the Belarusian elections and the United States. Donald trump he has not been present in the area since his election.
Who supports whom?
The two most important external players in the region are Russia and Turkey. Two states that are already on opposite sides in Syria and Libya.
Turkey is a longtime supporter of Azerbaijan, and the relationship between Ankara and Baku is quite close, largely due to their common Turkish heritage. However, for a long time there have been tensions between Turkey and Armenia because the Turks do not want to acknowledge the Armenian massacre of 1915. This led to Turkey closing its borders with Armenia in 1993 and not reopening them since, and not maintaining a diplomatic relationship between them.
In the case of Nagorno-Karabakh, it is also important to note that Azerbaijan also supplies the Turks with natural gas and oil, and the gas pipeline is just 50 kilometers from the front line.
That is why Turkey is on the side of the Azeris, but this has not been reflected in anything else for a long time beyond the statements. Then, after the July clashes, the Turks finally launched a joint military exercise with Azerbaijan, a strong enough indication that they were willing to intervene if necessary.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan The Turkish president has recently spoken that Armenia has to stop occupying Azerbaijani territories. Its objectives are unclear, but recently it has been trying quite aggressively to gain ground in the former Ottoman Empire, including against Russia in Syria and against Cyprus, Greece and Israel in the Middle East.
Russia’s role is much more confusing in the Caucasus. The Kremlin also has good economic relations with Armenians and Azeris, and even supplies arms to both countries. However, the relationship with Yerevan runs somewhat deeper, as Armenia has, among other things, a Russian military base as part of the Eurasian Economic Union.
What will happen now?
Looking at the military history of the two parties so far, it has been characteristic that the diplomat intervenes and the parties lay down their arms within 48 hours. This has not happened now, in fact the opposite is happening. Armenia has declared itself fully ready, to which Azerbaijan has responded in kind.
Since conflict is not given too much importance and little is known about it in many parts of the world, there is a danger of hell breaking loose. Washington doesn’t seem to be interested in the events at all, Donald Trump just added to the whole thing, they’ll see if they can stop the battles.
Currently, there is a negligible chance that the parties will sign a peace treaty and somehow agree on Nagorno-Karabakh of controversial affiliation, as both countries insist on it for reasons of history and national identity.
During the 30 years of permanent war, Armenia has never attacked Azerbaijan’s gas pipelines, but if the situation continues to deteriorate and Turkey intervenes, if necessary, it is unthinkable. This would be the point where not only the future of Nagorno-Karabakh would be at stake, but also a regional conflict.
The pipeline will deliver 9.2 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Turkey in 2019 alone, and will also be supplied to Greece and Italy in October. The Turks would understandably protect their interests, Vladimir Putin However, he does not want in the least for Erdogan to show his strength in the former Soviet territory.
In the coming days, it will be decided whether to return to permanent war or decide by force who will own Nagorno-Karabakh.
Cover image: Image published by the press office of the Armenian Defense Ministry of an Armenian soldier firing a cannon in the clashes between the armed forces of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh of disputed affiliation on September 29, 2020. Photo: MTI / AP / Press Office of the Ministry of Defense of Armenia / PAN Photo / Sipan Gyulumyan
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