Coronavirus: Tens of thousands of Hungarians would die if the gigantic fleet of fans rotated

In the face of uncertainty about whether the government would actually fill tens of thousands of hospital beds and operate 16,000 ventilators before taking strict restrictive measures to curb the coronavirus epidemic, we will show what to expect in the country in extreme cases. Especially since, at the moment, it seems that at the level of words, the cabinet is committed to allocating 10 to 20 to 30 thousand hospital beds to patients with coronavirus and to operate its fleet of ventilators at full capacity if necessary. The Human Resources Ministry said last week that “there are 9,487 hospital beds available to treat coronavirus patients, of which 384 are currently used and more than 16,000 ventilators are available. These capabilities can be further expanded as needed. “(Since then, the number of hospital admissions has risen to 534, despite an increase in deaths.)

But what would happen in this case?

The simple calculation would be that with 16,000 breathed 50% mortality, 8,000 with 80% mortality (this is closer to reality) would imply 12,800 deaths. However, this would only be true if the number of ventilators in operation suddenly went from 0 overnight to 16,000, meaning that all patients were “hooked up to the machines at the same time.” While this is the case with a car accident or mass accident (a one-time effect), this is not the case at all with a coronavirus epidemic. We know from the nature of the epidemic that every day more people become infected, while others die or are cured.

Dozens of fans are already running simultaneously and there are already more than 70 deaths in the epidemic in September. In other words, it is about getting more and more patients connected to the ventilator, some of whom never leave it, while others recover happily.

With the government stressing the tens of thousands of hospital beds and 16,000 ventilators to treat patients, all we can do is calculate how many deaths would result from such an outbreak of the epidemic.

Assumptions:

• From a few dozen in September to the end of January, the number of people ventilated at the same time will increase to 16,000.
• It is not the medical staff (number of doctors and nurses or ambulances) that represents the limited capacity in care, but the number of ventilators.
• We don’t expect someone to die without being hooked up to a fan.
• The government will not take strict restrictive measures for a long time to stop the spread of the epidemic, and the rapid increase in the number of infected people will not change people’s behavior much this year.
• As fan capacity saturation approaches (January), the population becomes cautious and the government introduces a curfew.
• The steps will reduce the reproduction rate of the coronavirus epidemic, which will “capture” the number of people ventilated by 16,000 by the end of January.
• We do not anticipate new hot spots to form as a result, that is, the epidemic will stop quickly and efficiently, so there will be no more people ventilated after the end of January.

In the above model, the epidemic will result in a total of 44-73 thousand deaths in Hungary at the end of January, as patients die every day and are replaced by new and newly infected people up to the maximum utilization of capacity. With the end of the epidemic at the end of January (there will be no more patients on board), the only problem is the recovery or death of 16,000 ventilators, which means another 8-13,000 deaths.

Overall, therefore, with significant uncertainty The epidemic could be 50 to 80 thousand deaths in Hungary, if we consider that the total capacity of the fans is the limit and we do not tighten it very much until we get close to it. Obviously, an error on the order of tens of thousands is possible, depending on whether the machines fill faster or slower than assumed (which moves the output constraint closer or farther away), but the model shows that in this case they could occur tens of thousands of deaths. The good news is that as healing effectiveness improves, the proportion of people with a respirator successfully healed may increase, but not enough to cure the majority.

We note that with the realization of this scenario, it can be roughly assumed that most Hungarians suffer from a coronavirus infection, which is the limit of herd immunity, even if it exists for coronavirus.

However, the above model is only theoretical: on the one hand, we are confident that with the rapid increase in deaths, the government will take strict restrictive measures before tens of thousands are killed, and on the other hand, there are not enough workers in the cheers to do this enormous task. Staff can handle up to a few thousand fans even under particularly strenuous jobs and drastic loads. If more is needed, physical limitations will arise.

New issues of Viktor Orbán

Yesterday Viktor Orbán had special numbers. The Prime Minister spoke in Parliament about the fact that according to doctors and mathematicians, “in the worst case scenario, 200,000 people in the country could be infected at the same time”, of which 16,000 may need hospital treatment and 800 may need a fan. Orbán also talked about doing double that to make sure.

We do not know if the Prime Minister spoke of registered infected people or if those who go through the infection but are not diagnosed are also included in this assumption, in any case, the figures are not really consistent. According to most experts, there may already be more than 200,000 active cases (after Hungary only diagnoses every 20 cases), and the reproduction rate is still well above 2, meaning the virus is spreading quickly. If, on the other hand, the Prime Minister spoke of 200,000 recorded cases, that means roughly 4 million actual infections, which will eventually result in tens of thousands of deaths (with a 1% mortality rate).

But if we “put aside” the case numbers from the numbers described by Viktor Orbán and focus only on the ventilated ones, there will still be thousands of deaths. According to the Prime Minister, we need up to 800 ventilators during the worst period of the epidemic (which is expected to arrive at the end of the year, beginning of next year), and for this we have taken the assumptions used in our first model. Adjusting the capacity limit to 800 fans will result in 2600-4300 deaths in the epidemic in Hungary if drastic restrictive measures are imposed as the capacity limit approaches. If the measures are not strict enough, then the number of ventilated people will only decrease very slowly (the epidemic will not be suppressed, some deaths will be replaced by new cases on the ventilator), further increasing the total number of deaths. Continuing Viktor Orbán’s line of reasoning that double the capacity is also expected (which would mean 1,600 machines), it means 5,200-8600 deaths under the above assumptions. Note that the mention of the 800-1600 fan thickens the fog around the 16,000-machine acquisition even more.

conclusion

All in all, it appears that hundreds of thousands of people in Hungary will be infected with the coronavirus in the next period. There is regularly a high level of hospital capacity by the government, but we have to say: whoever connects to a respirator is more likely to die than to recover. Due to the rapid spread of the epidemic, the number of hospital admissions, ventilators and deaths will increase in the next period. The only question is how many will actually be hospitalized and how many will die, and this will largely depend on the degree to which society adheres to the restrictive measures in place and whether further austerity measures are introduced. As we have seen before, the Cabinet does not rule out the occurrence of extreme cases, but our guess is that a few thousand deaths could easily provoke a social reaction that prompts the government to take action.

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