Coronavirus: Not only an immediate tightening is needed in Hungary, but also the injection of money

Although Béla Merkely blamed the Hungarians who were visiting abroad for the appearance of the second wave in Hungary, who thought they were expected to spend the holidays at home, let’s record: it was not the Hungarians who colored the countries green, yellow or red, but the government gave a green signal, p. Also to Croatia, where the number of cases increased dramatically in August. At that time, many countries already gave the Adriatic a red rating, but Hungarians could still travel there, who could bring the virus.

Given that the coronavirus is once again spreading within Hungary, and faster than ever, the complete closure of the border may not really help contain the virus without other measures. The complete border closure announced after the sudden spike in domestic cases seemed like a particular reaction on the part of the Cabinet, as a number of (questionable) improvements were made after the move was made. It is true that a high risk factor (introduction) comes out of the equation as a border blockade, however it is too late as it certainly will not stop the internal spread of the virus. Also, p. Eg the subsequent weakening of the Czechs, where the spread has accelerated significantly, cannot be explained at all by the epidemiological situation.

Without a doubt, after the announcement of austerity, we will have to live with the victim of the real economy, although eventually there will be some kind of exceptions. In the eyes of European tourists, Hungary has become a red country since September, where they cannot travel. In other words, we have to live with the economic damage caused by the austerity measures caused by the second wave of the coronavirus epidemic, and the economic recovery forecasts may be lowered again. Although the government is sending a message to avoid another stagnation of the Hungarian economy (which occurred in the spring), the first measure points to a partial stagnation in the tourism and hospitality sectors and related sectors. After the outbreak of the crisis, the most affected sector, which has already started to catch up in the summer, is now back on track.

Therefore, the extension of the Kurzarbeit and / or the (re) initiation of other aid should have been notified immediately after the notification of the border closure, at least in the sectors definitely affected. (By the way, the wage subsidy ended just as the second wave arrived.) Otherwise, we can do the same as in the spring: after more than a month after the outbreak of the coronavirus crisis, companies have made drastic cuts, as the wage subsidy program is largely available after the introduction of austerity measures, after tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands were left unemployed. If the Hungarian government introduced immediate economic stimulus in the spring, it would now have far fewer unemployed and the economic recession could have been more moderate. A key issue is that In the second wave, economic recovery measures must be taken immediately in parallel with austerity measures in order to mitigate the deterioration of the economic situation and avoid a further increase in unemployment.

Therefore, we must not get carried away by the economic effects of the border blockade. It would have seemed much more sophisticated to establish an entry criteria system for the EU and popular destinations that would allow entry from countries with a similar or lower level of infection per 100,000 inhabitants, and would also allow Hungarians to travel to these countries. areas without particular difficulties. This step will reduce the risk of virus introduction (especially if, for example, entry is tested), but it will not immediately reduce tourism over the next period, nor will it pose major challenges for cross-border business relationships.

Which, by the way, could have significantly improved our balance / foreign trade position, and this could be especially important in a situation where every guilder is needed, increasing income and assets. We can already know from the data for the second quarter that the export of services (including tourism) practically went to the ground due to the lack of foreign guests, and it seems that we cannot avoid this loss in the coming period if the closure is maintained frontier.

There is no doubt that Hungary had to toughen up due to the increasing number of cases. However, the possibility of introduction could already be seen in late July and early August, that is, it should have taken substantial austerity measures to travel abroad much earlier. Now the main spread of the virus is the main risk, which is that the introduction of restrictions within borders is inevitable. From the first wave, we can learn from the example of each country what to avoid at all costs.

Sweden has seen the epidemic continue to take its toll and has done little to stop it as its economy has slumped. There, even days, months after the virus appeared, there was a debate about whether wearing a mask would help prevent the spread of the virus and whether any restrictions should be applied. There is no doubt that the Swedes made a big mistake, as there are a number of measures that will not be counterproductive for the economy, but can help curb the spread of the virus.

And Italy introduced strict restrictive measures too late, at a time when the virus was already spreading very rapidly within the country’s borders, so the healthcare system had virtually collapsed – hospitals were overloaded and unable to provide a adequate care for more and more patients. It’s not just about whether everyone has a fan, it’s also about whether there will be someone to operate them. On the other hand, it may not be prudent to allow the virus to spread for as long as our health capacity allows it, as it appears that the easiest way to overcome the virus is to take relatively mild epidemiological and restrictive measures as soon as possible after disease to appear (visible). without claiming integrity: curfew in health and social care institutions, guarantee of distance everywhere, strong increase in testing capabilities, testing of all suspected cases, testing of health and education personnel, mandatory use of masks in all institutions, drastic punishment for offenders).

The only thing we can do is introduce restrictive measures softer than in spring, but more stringent than they are now, as the new number of cases one or two days a week shows that we cannot wait another minute. In parallel, the negative effects of austerity on companies and households will be immediately offset by fiscal measures to prevent the economic situation from deteriorating. If we do only the first part of the task and there are no meaningful economic measures, consumer and business confidence is expected to decline again, significantly eroding belief in recovery.

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