Coronavirus: It is feared that it is no longer possible to guess how big the epidemic really is in Hungary

The coronavirus epidemic broke out in Hungary at an unprecedented rate in August, going from a few dozen to almost a thousand new illnesses a day in less than a month. However, after the record of 916 seen on September 12, more reassuring data came in: since then, we can see numbers between 484 and 844.

It is not yet possible to draw far-reaching conclusions from the data of a few days, but it seems that the particularly rapid rate of spread has started to slow. This is particularly surprising given that the virus is emerging every day in new institutions (schools, nursing homes). Nor does Emmi’s statement suggest an improvement in the epidemic situation, with a steady increase in the number of samples requested.

In any case, two things could have happened:

1. The epidemic situation in Hungary is softening due to mild restrictive measures and strengthening discipline, so the number of new cases for the day is actually decreasing after last week’s records.
2. or we have reached the limit of our testing capabilities, so we cannot detect new cases of coronavirus for several days while the infection continues to spread strongly.

Sure, it would be great to believe in the first scenario, but we have flashed a couple of factors that make the second one much more likely.

• Paramedics: Paramedics previously arrived within 24 hours for suspected coronavirus cases. Last week, the ambulance service spoke 24 to 48 hours, and now they say it can take up to 3 days to evaluate someone after the report. “Due to the growing demand for sampling, the test time may be extended up to two or three days in the future,” said Gábor Csató, head of InfoRádió’s ambulance service, yesterday. And some reports say that we have to wait even longer for testing in Budapest, because the ambulance service is very busy.
• General practitioners: Zsombor Kunetz, a health expert, asked the GPs. Seventy GPs answered the question of what was their experience, how long would it take to get to the ambulance to take samples. Budapest and Pest often have to wait 5-6 days to get the sample, while elsewhere, mainly in the countryside, ambulances arrive quickly, in just 24-48 hours.
• Test result: Laboratories also have a significant workload. According to some news reports, they are so overwhelmed that they have to wait much longer than before for a test result.

Overall, therefore, our impression of the above is that In the current framework, the country has reached the end of testing capabilities. As a result, while previously (a few weeks) the diagnosis was made within 2-3 days of a suspected coronavirus, it may now have risen to 4-5 (or even more) days. Consistency of the new daily case numbers can only be guaranteed if there is no significant delay in the duration of the tests. Based on the above, the full capacity ambulance service / laboratories will not be able to perform further tests and display the test results in a unit of time, even if the spread of the epidemic in Hungary accelerates.

In the recent period, as the number of cases has increased, so has the number of tests. While we run thousands of tests a day in mid-August with a few dozen positive cases a day, we do around 10,000 tests with 600-800 positive cases a day. It could have happened that while a month ago there were 90 tests for 1 more positive case, now there are only 15 and the trend is steadily decreasing. If we wanted to keep at least the ratio from the end of August, we would have to do at least twice as many tests today, over 20,000. All of this shows that contact investigation has slowed down and / or we have reached the end of our testing capacity.

This is all inconvenient because the new daily case numbers now have even less data content. We already know that Hungary is only every 15-20. can diagnose a case. But if the waiting list of those who should be tested and the number of people waiting for their results has grown, then it is not the epidemic that has domesticated our country, but only the fact that every day we receive fewer positive cases in proportion to the actual infection. That is, it is possible that we can no longer diagnose all 20 cases, but only 22, 23 or 25 cases on a given day. This has made it uncertain at what stage the epidemic is, since it now depends on the length of the waiting lists (with the same testing capacity, the waiting list increases or decreases), which nobody knows and there is no data . This is bad news not only for those waiting to be evaluated, but also for modelers trying to predict the course of the epidemic from the numbers of cases, that the government will take epidemiological measures into account.

In light of all this, the most rational choice is a very significant increase in testing capabilities, an acceleration of contact investigation, and a shift towards strictly regulated testing protocols / criteria, moving closer to European standards.

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