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Based on the daily number of new infections of more than 4,000, the extremely fast upward trend in the number of cases seems to be breaking, as we have seen more than 5,000 pieces of information in the last few days. However, this continues to show that the epidemic is spreading dynamically in the country.
If favorable case data comes in in the next few days, we can start to have confidence. Regarding the dynamics of the epidemic, not only the number of cases but also the proportion of positive cases in the new samples is a positive development, with less than 17% of positive tests, a significant drop of more than 30% in the last days. It would be nice, of course, if the positivity rate was around 5% (this is the size of the epidemic under control), but a decrease in the number of nights and a decrease in the positivity rate are positive signs. Additionally, a record number of 23,500 new tests were conducted last day, indicating an increase in testing capabilities.
However, the number of deaths remains high, although 87 people are somewhat lower than those registered in recent days.
The number of hospitalized and ventilated patients is increasing in line with the increase in the number of active (currently ill) cases.
There are now more than 6,400 people in the hospital, about 486 on ventilators. Both figures are a new record, and we are likely to see a further increase as more people get sick than are cured and die together in one day.
The regional distribution is shown on our map below:
For every 100,000 inhabitants, this map shows the infected people:
Overall, on the basis of the proportion of cases and the proportion of positive tests, there seems to have been hope that we will leave behind a particularly rapid period of spread of the epidemic, provided that strict restrictive measures are followed. However, it could be that the next few days will set new records for case numbers before we can see a downward trend. The restrictive measures introduced can take effect in a week or two.
Regardless of how the number of cases develops in the short term, the workload of hospitals can increase even more and it is even possible that more people are put on a ventilator, as some of the infected (active cases) will deteriorate or in the short term (in a few days) returning to the epidemic in the country.
Cover image: Getty Images
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