Coronavirus: Hungary’s mortality data is strange

The daily increase in deaths stopped

We have written many times about the uncertainty of epidemiological data in Hungary, but there has always been one point that seems relatively safe. And this is the daily number of deaths. Although some deaths were omitted or included in the statistics only later, Hungary reports the number of deaths regularly. This is because each coronavirus case counts as one virus victim who died in the hospital during the viral infection, regardless of whether the infection was proven to have caused their death or possibly something else.

However, in the last few days something strange has happened. Until now, the increase in the number of positive cases has been followed by an increase in the number of hospital nurses and ventilators, and finally an increasing number of deaths. Now, however, it comes down to the fact that, despite the rapid spread of the epidemic, the number of deaths per day is no longer increasing. While more and more people are hospitalized and the number of people receiving ventilation is increasing, deaths range from 90 to 100 per day, breaking the upward trend. The number of deaths should be on an upward trend, not only due to the increase in hospital and ventilated personnel, but also due to the increase in new infections a few weeks ago.

We examine what our model did from the trends seen at the beginning of the first wave and the second wave shows. Here, we look at the total number of deaths per ventilated each day. The model shows the range of deaths per day at certain levels from 1 main fan to 800. The model is quite well tested: for 200 ventilated, p. There were about 50 deceased, we could see numbers around three hundred 7-80 and four hundred around 90-100. The following figure shows that something has happened in the last few weeks. When the number of people on the plane surpassed 500, the increase in the death toll (in a welcome way but quite incomprehensible at first) came to a halt.