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Last week, Budapest and this week Győr-Moson-Sopron county were added to the list of areas classified by risk by the German epidemiological authority and the relevant ministries in their joint decision. For Germans, the criterion is that if the total number of new confirmed infections per 100,000 inhabitants in a given county / city exceeds 50 people, they will enter, but also on the basis of other epidemiological trends (e.g. number of tests performed , testability). they can make such a decision in a multi-stage investigation.
What does risk rating mean?
The risk classification means that those arriving in Germany from such an area must undergo home quarantine, notify the local health office and undergo a coronavirus test within 72 hours. If the test result is negative, they can come out of quarantine, but from October 1 they must spend five days in quarantine and only then can the test arrive and if it is negative, they can come out of quarantine. A risk rating also means that the German Foreign Ministry issues a travel advisory in which it strongly discourages Germans from visiting the area / city, unless travel is urgent.
As you can see: Budapest was added to this list as early as week 37, about two weeks after the capital’s number crossed the 50 threshold at a rapid pace. However, Pest County has not yet been included in this list, but it is likely to be on the list soon as we are now in week 39 and the number of Pest County infections has increased sharply from Monday to Saturday , therefore, the examined indicator can be accelerated to more than 100 people.
By the way, it is worth seeing how quickly the epidemic of 220 people in Budapest spread between the EU capitals. As you can see: this was the sixth fastest pace in week 38 for capitals and capital regions. The value in Prague was double that of Budapest and that of Madrid almost double that of Prague. It is no coincidence that on Friday the Spanish government proposed the closure of Madrid as a whole to stop the spread of the epidemic.
Returning to the rate of spread of the epidemic in Hungarian counties, the figure below shows that, while the rate of spread in Csongrád-Csanád county was faster last week than in Győr-Moson-Sopron counties, the German epidemic has placed the latter on the risk classification list. However, this is likely to change in the next few days, I Great Plain County will likely be added to this list as well. With a distribution value of over 100 people, the counties of Fejér, Komárom-Esztergom and Vas are also in the “danger zone” in terms of inclusion in the German list, but if we look only at last week’s value In fact, all of our counties were above the critical level of 50.
For this reason, German epidemiology is likely to look not only at the rate of infection in the last week, but also the dynamics (and other indicators) of consecutive weeks to put a county or region on the risk ranking list or wait. Looking at the dynamics unfortunately In fact, the county of Csongrád-Csanád will soon be added to said German list, since in the course of 3 weeks the number of new infections per 100,000 inhabitants jumped enormously. In 9 counties east of the Danube, this indicator jumped by far to week 38, and from Monday to Saturday this week, unfortunately, the spread of the infection accelerated even more. The trend is also alarming in Hajdú-Bihar and Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg counties.
Jumping over Transdanubia, you can see that the ascent was very fast near Győr-Moson-Sopron county In the counties of Fejér and Vas Also the data up to week 38 and from Monday to Saturday of this week, unfortunately, show even more acceleration. Therefore these two counties are likely to be on the German list in a few weeks as well. Meanwhile, the county of Veszprém is also in the “danger zone”. In the other counties, the differential momentum appeared to have broken last week, but sadly we cannot draw a far-reaching optimistic conclusion from this just yet.
Cover Image Source: Akos Stiller / Bloomberg via Getty Images
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