[ad_1]
As part of our new promotion, annual SIGNATURE subscriptions purchased between March 31 and April 9 can now be purchased at a 40% discount for HUF 18,000. This gives you access to the latest news, key analysis, and exclusive content at a much better price. Plus, you can even support the production of quality inexpensive content. Click here for more details.
There will be a new situation in a few weeks.
According to a report on Sunday morning, 2,312,501 people received the coronavirus vaccine, of which 905,000 had already received the second dose. The following graph shows that the number of people vaccinated has been increasing in recent days. If the vaccination rate of the last week is maintained in the next few days (we can be sure that the government will do everything possible on the supply and logistics side),
we can reach the first number of 2.5 million vaccinated sooner than previously reported.
Now it looks like April 7-8. this level is achievable (this was also mentioned by the Prime Minister in his video on Sunday morning when he said that this number could arrive 1-2 days after Easter). This is important because, according to the previously enacted government decree, as soon as the 2.5 million vaccination is administered in Hungary, the reopening rules will take effect (in addition to the square meter rule, but shops and services will open like last November and between March 8 of this year). The current restrictive measures remain in effect until April 8, after which there are two avenues before the government: once the figure of 2.5 million vaccinated is in place, the first restart measures could take effect if not there are 2 for that day or it is expected for 9.5 million vaccinated, it is convenient to extend the current restrictive measures for a few more days. That’s why the government wants to strive to reach the 2.5 million level, because that’s the way it is. A temporary extension of the restrictive measures for a few more days can be avoided. Stakeholders (shops, service providers) will be better prepared for the new rules (eg compliance with the number of customers per square meter) and the public will not be affected by the new transitional regulations.
The acceleration of vaccination administration is related to the fact that the capacity of the Hungarian vaccination system has reached a new peak these days. If the first and second doses of vaccines are calculated together, the daily capacity of the vaccination system has already reached the administration of 90 thousand vaccines. This is partly due to reasons of organizational expansion (they can be vaccinated in various places) and the fact that vaccination of both teachers and pregnant women is being carried out at a high rate.
An increase in the number of people vaccinated with the first dose of the vaccine can cause
Hungary will reach the point where the number of people vaccinated with the first dose will reach the number of people registered for vaccination sooner than indicated so far.
In practice, this means that sometime around May, maybe June, there will be a wall to further increase vaccine administration, assuming the current system.
What could be the solution?
Zsolt Boldogkői, head of the Department of Medical Biology at the University of Szeged, has been drawing attention to this phenomenon for several days. RTL told Híradó two days ago that the need to vaccinate should be increased to achieve the level of herd immunity as soon as possible. “There is a growing willingness to vaccinate, but we will reach a threshold from which we will not be able to advance,” said the expert, who said that the reason is that many people are opposed to the vaccine in principle. The channel quoted the prime minister in a recent radio interview that the government has no plans to make vaccination against the coronavirus mandatory.
In a Facebook post on Saturday night, Zsolt Boldogkői also pointed out that although we are becoming increasingly global in terms of vaccination, which will soon have a beneficial effect on today’s even unfavorable health statistics, two problems must be solved. On the one hand, he asked for patience with the opening, noting that the opening of schools scheduled for April 19 should be postponed.
On the other hand, he thinks we’ll get to that point soon. vaccination does not further increase vaccination and therefore we cannot eliminate the virus. Then he added, “anti-vaccination must be broken.” As a tool, he mentions, among other things, that “current legislation should apply to skeptical and anti-vaccine leaders.” The teacher also makes a proposal:
An effective motivational system should be developed to develop the willingness to vaccinate, the main means of which should be to give very strong powers to the vaccination record.
The example from Serbia already shows the causes of a system in which 1) the registration of vaccination needs is based on registration 2) the number of people registered for vaccination does not increase enough 2) and there are huge quantities of vaccines (Chinese and Russian vaccines) available in the meantime.
However, Hungary differs significantly from Serbia, as vaccination is basically present and vaccine acceptance has improved almost steadily for weeks, according to a CSO survey. The vaccine acceptance rate improved from 42% to 14 percentage points in four weeks, during which time the total rejection rate decreased (-6.9 percentage points), while the proportion of those who perhaps responded decreased by 5 points percentage.
The government is already preparing for the new situation
So, out of the 8 million adult Hungarians, 4.5 million people would clearly get vaccinated (these are the same respondents), while there are another 1.71 million people who could get vaccinated themselves. In theory, therefore, there would still be a lot of room to increase the number of people registered for vaccination (at least 700,000, maximum 2.4 million), the only question is how fast they are registered and if the indicators of willingness really they get involved in the registry.
In such a situation, two (+1) solutions are described:
- Positive incentives to increase the number of registrants.
- Or tools outside the registration system: that is, aimed at groups that have not been able to register so far (for example, young people).
- Make the vaccine mandatory: However, the chances of it being minimal are minimal, as it would also be completely contrary to international guidelines.
The government seems to be aware of the new situation that will soon come and is considering the first two solutions described above. Viktor Orbán also spoke in detail about this situation in his radio interview on Friday.
There may be a point where there are more vaccines than the registered number
he recognized and literally mentioned both possibilities. They are already working to assess whether high school students can vaccinate those over 16 years of age. The operating strain is also working to determine if they can grant discounts to those vaccinated. He predicted, to speed up the record numbers, that it was likely those vaccinated will receive discounts, but only after we have reached 3.5 million vaccinated. In this regard, he mentioned: freedom can be an incentive for others to get the vaccine. However, he steadfastly refused to make the vaccine mandatory.
It is worth paying attention to the promotion of vaccination. To Germany. According to the latest news, those with coronavirus vaccination in Germany may be exempted from epidemiological restrictions, but only from the 15th day after the last vaccination dose. Concerned parties for example, they can go to a hairdresser without examination or to stores that reopen by loosening restrictions, and they do not have to quarantine after a trip abroad. The Health Minister has announced that the new rules could be introduced in a few weeks.
So far, no decision has been made here in Hungary about the benefits that vaccinated people can get. The last time Gergely Gulyás, head of the Prime Minister’s Office, spoke about this at the end of February. It already seems certain that holders of a security certificate do not have to quarantine themselves. And in February, there was talk of giving those involved benefits that would facilitate openness. At the same time, the head of the ministry also said that in the case of document holders, for example, maintaining a curfew does not make sense. At the same time, it follows that in your case, services will be available that even others do not have. According to Viktor Orbán, this is only possible in the case of 3.5 million vaccinated people, and now we expect this to be done no later than April 19-20. Hungary (as schools would open according to current plans). It could even be possible that those vaccinated have access to pre-restriction options from November last year, such as restaurant seats or even reservations for private trips.
Cover image source: Viktor Orbán Facebook page
[ad_2]
