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The reproductive value of the coronavirus epidemic in Hungary can be estimated at 2-2.5 at the moment, Gergely Röst, a mathematician at SZTE, told Portfolio.hu. According to the head of the Epidemiological Mathematics team, the proportion of cases brought in and related to them does not even reach 10 percent, since our own cases have also increased.
The reproduction number (R) expresses the average number of other people who are infected by an infected person. The new coronavirus usually has a reproduction number between 2.5 and 3 without protective measures. We have been above 1 for a while and have jumped a lot in the last few days. When there is a sudden trend change in the data, the statistical uncertainty increases, currently estimated at 2-2.5.
Meanwhile, the proportion of cases filed and related to them is less than 10 percent. Furthermore, we are now seeing the spread of the epidemic among the younger generation: the median age of the cases in April was still 69 years, which is now 31 years, which means that half of the cases are under 31. years. This is similar to what happened in Florida, which is a bit concerning, said Gergely Röst, a mathematician at the University of Szeged (SZTE), head of the epidemiological math team at Portfolio.hu. And all of this is not offset by the border blockade that begins Tuesday, so now would be the time to focus on national spread.
According to the expert, it is certain that starting school will increase the number of reproductions. Children pass through the infection largely asymptomatic or with much milder symptoms than adults, but the small proportion with symptoms show the same viral concentration as adults. It is not clear if they are less likely to be infected than an adult in the same exposure.
Nor should we forget that there is a two-week lag in the data, including the current increase in cases. A significant proportion of those we now record were infected in mid-August. The impact of the long weekend will only come now, says the ominous forecast.
Even in the spring phase, we estimate the detection rate to be 5 to 10 percent, which means that the system will find that large portion of everyone infected. 6 percent comes from the nationally representative H-UNCOVER survey. Since the rate of symptoms among young people is lower and the virus is now spreading among them, I am afraid that our current detection rate has worsened even more, the mathematician added.
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