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Israel is by far the world leader in the ranking of administered vaccines, with a total of 101.4 vaccines per 100 people in the country. Israel has almost vaccinated the entire population, but there is still plenty of room for vaccination because many have not yet received the vaccine at all.
It is important that international databases are sent everybody vaccine, which includes both the first and second vaccines. Therefore, the data presented below does not indicate immunity and not only the first vaccination, but the total number of vaccines administered.. In Israel, for example, there are 101.4 vaccines per 100 inhabitants, while the immunity due to vaccination can be approximately 50%.
In second place, far behind Israel, is the United Arab Emirates, with 65.6 vaccines administered per 100 inhabitants. Next comes the UK with a long delay, after which the TOP5 field has already leveled off. In Hungary, 16.2 vaccines are administered for every 100 people, which makes us the eighth most vaccinated country in the world, if we do not count the mini-states.
Every day it is observed to what extent the 16.2 vaccines administered per 100 inhabitants still fail to control the epidemic,
and this is easy to understand since the epidemic can still spread freely among the vast majority of the population. With such a low vaccination rate, we cannot even expect significant social benefits from vaccines (on an individual level, of course, it can save lives). On the other hand, it is already worth looking at what the countries that lead the ranking have done with vaccines administered above 100 per 100 inhabitants, around 66 and above 30.
The absolute pioneer
Israel ranks very high on the list of vaccines administered. In short, this is possible because the country paid vaccine manufacturers well above the international average price and also committed to providing complete data to Pfizer and Moderna. Whereas, with the exception of mini-states, Israel provides the only sample in the world that has already approached the lower limit of herd immunity,
Therefore, we can say that if the epidemic in Israel was not clearly diminishing, it would be a big problem.
Fortunately, this is not the case, as new cases are clearly beginning to decline significantly as the vaccination schedule has increased, and although cases above 2000 per day remain relatively high, the trend continues to decline. As restrictions in the country were eased in parallel with the vaccination program, the conclusion is clear: the vaccine has proven its effectiveness in Israel, effectively breaking the epidemic curve.
Of course, there are deaths, but unfortunately this is not surprising, especially since the observed trend in mortality is always a bit late for the rapid decline of the epidemic. In recent days, we have not seen a decline in the trend, with daily deaths stagnant at a low level, but it is clear that the number of deaths has started to decline as the vaccination schedule increases and restrictions are lifted.
Otherwise, there is no need to worry that vaccines will not be effective because the still relatively high number of cases and the low stagnant mortality are explained by the fact that the country has not yet reached the lower limit of herd immunity. According to the latest data, approximately 55% of the population received at least the first dose and 45% received the second dose.
Therefore, along with transfection, Israeli immunity is around 50%, which means that there is plenty of room for the epidemic to spread among half the population.
In any case, it is especially encouraging that the number of cases showed a pronounced change even with relaxation at 50% inoculation. Vaccines have also been shown to be effective in a large sample: Pfizer, for example, prevented severe and fatal outcomes in 97% and protected mild ones in 95%. On the other hand, it must be seen that we cannot speak of a complete opening even with a vaccination of 50% and, unfortunately, we have to count on deaths even with such a high vaccination.
United Arab Emirates
The Emirates no longer provide as accurate a sample as Israel, with a total of 66 vaccines per 100 people; again, this does not mean 66% immunity, as it includes both the first and second doses. Immunity in the country is therefore around 30% at best. By the way, a high vaccination was achieved by using 4 vaccines: Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Sinopharm and Sputnik V. If we look at the case numbers, we also see here that, along with the increase in the vaccination schedule, the curve turned first moderately and then abruptly.
The daily mortality data also shows a reversal of the trend, but like Israel, it does not reveal much, as the base was extremely low.
The results observed in the United Arab Emirates are also encouraging, mainly in light of the fact that, like Israel, restrictions have been relaxed in the Arab world as the vaccination program has increased;t, and yet the number of cases decreased significantly. However, they are still high, so the country could only afford a slight relaxation:
Thus, 60 vaccines per 100 inhabitants (with an estimated immunity of 30% to 35%) are not enough to open, but they do break the epidemic curve.
What is twice the vaccine administered than the Hungarian number?
So far, we have seen virtually nothing surprising: as more and more people are vaccinated, the epidemic curve begins to shift, and as we approach the minimum estimated flock immunity (60%), they can be done. significant reductions, but not complete. with cases in drastic decline. Now the main question arises: which countries have administered twice as many vaccines as our population?
Let’s look at the British first. The UK was the country where the rapidly spreading British mutant hit its head, and this can be seen in the extremely high number of cases in December (this is what we see now in Hungary). At the same time, however, with the vaccination program, this curve began to decline sharply.
Of course, the 6-7 thousand new cases per day are still high, far exceeding the number seen at the time of the first wave, so there is still a major epidemic in the country. The number of deaths also dropped significantly at the same time as the vaccination program, but many still die in a single day in the UK.
At first it may seem clear that due to the advancement of the vaccination program, the epidemic is decreasing in the country, and above we have said that “the epidemic curve has reversed at the same time as the vaccination program” – and we did not. do you by chance, because there is one more thing
The British responded to the third wave with iron stiffness, hard closures, and we suspect that this may have had a much more significant effect on suppressing the epidemic than the immunity given by vaccines at around 15-20%.
With all this, we do not want to underestimate the immunity built in the country, because it could also have effectively supported the closures, but we have good reason to assume that the restrictions contributed more to breaking the curve. Let’s look at the example of Chile, where vaccination is very similar to that of the British:
The number of cases appears to be increasing, from a high base in proportion to population, although almost as many vaccines per 100 inhabitants have been administered here as in the UK.. Mortality statistics are also not improving, which is perhaps more concerning than the increase in the number of cases (given that vaccination is higher among the elderly and at risk, so in theory the number of deaths should decrease even with a stagnant epidemic).
Meanwhile, there was no relaxation in Chile either, in fact, there are stricter measures than in the country between November and March.
Therefore, we can guess that if the 32 vaccines per 100 inhabitants in Chile had not been enough to control the epidemic, it would not have been in the United Kingdom without strict measures. Of course, other factors may also play a role here, such as the Brazilian mutant, which may have spread earlier in Chile and is presumably resistant to certain vaccines. Additionally, the Chinese Sinovac vaccine is widely used in Chile (which is why the country may have been on the top list), the effectiveness of which has been cause for concern. We do not know exactly to what extent it supported or counteracted the reduction of the epidemic.
In any case, it is certain that the 32 vaccines per 100 inhabitants could not only break the epidemic for the moment, but could not even prevent the increase, and this amount is exactly double that in Hungary.
So there is still a long way to go, as we need to reach at least the level of vaccination seen in the Emirates to start talking about a visible and lasting reduction of the epidemic. And then we don’t even talk about lifting the restrictions. Let’s take a look at the following figure:
It seems that Israel has been able to relax significantly with high vaccinations, its austerity index is roughly the same as Hungary in July (big event ban, travel restrictions, mask wearing obligations, etc.) so we can’t even talk of opening there. In the Emirates there was also the possibility of a minimum relaxation, although before there was no great rigor. Chile, on the other hand, can not only relax, but its epidemic data is deteriorating further, despite tighter measures in place than at home until the last adjustment in March. (The Hungarian Hardening Index has not been updated in the Oxford University database since then.) And the British still live within important limits, and it is perhaps this austerity that has trapped the spread of the epidemic.
The Hungarian strategy can be sped up a bit by changing the timing of the second vaccine so that the first dose provides greater protection, but the Israeli example also shows that a vaccination of about 50% is not enough to eradicate the epidemic, or prevent all of the deaths. .
Cover photo: British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visits a vaccination center in Northern Ireland (Charles McQuillan – Pool / Getty Images).
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