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The expected outcome of Brexit and the economic outlook due to the coronavirus will be discussed in detail at the Portfolio Budapest Economic Forum conference on October 8. More details:
Johnson revealed his true intentions
Late Monday night, the British House of Representatives voted for the first time on a government-introduced domestic market bill that the British government minister openly said last week would violate certain clauses in an exit agreement. of the EU which is an international convention (Northern Ireland unilaterally rewritten: decision-making powers would be given to British ministers rather than a joint British-European body).
In his pre-voting speech on Monday night, Boris Johnson essentially said that the EU was unwilling to remove its weapon from the negotiating table and tended to interpret the points of the exit agreement that had been reached in the extreme, for what It’s time we put our own guns on the table too to take us seriously and
they don’t want to divide the UK on the basis of trade rules.
But of course we do not want to use the ministerial rights granted by this law, we simply include it in the regulation for security reasons to prepare for any eventuality (i.e. no-deal Brexit).
It is worth noting that the Northern Ireland Protocol to the EU Exit Agreement also meant Brexit without a trade agreement, which also regulated it in detail, so the British government’s argument that that this internal market law is now being drafted to provide a safety net and prepare for this possibility. Incidentally, Johnson himself acknowledged this in his speech yesterday, when he put it this way:
The purpose of this bill is clearly to stop this kind of use of the EU’s stick against the country.
What type of dissection attempt did you refer to?
He alluded to the intention, raised by the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barni, last Wednesday, that the EU has not yet decided whether to accept the UK’s relatively strict animal health standards after a transition period ending in late 2020 and is therefore willing to add the country to the list of external third countries. This is an important issue because if you add it to the list, animal and food products can flow from Great Britain to Northern Ireland, which remains in the EU common market, without any particular obstacles. If, on the other hand, it is not included in this list, the British government would argue that it would put Northern Ireland, which is an integral part of the United Kingdom, under a ‘food blockade’.
Obviously this is a bit of an exaggerated term but in any case it is really strange to float in the EU, because at the moment British veterinary regulations are the same as in the EU so it would take time to deteriorate and even a law that everyone they would obviously know. because of these British outrage seems legitimate according to the Politico case study.
Another problem is that the EU also wants to pressure the British in trade negotiations to promote their own interests. So, in effect, the British Internal Market Act came into hand, which would give British ministers decision-making power over certain trade and state aid matters rather than a joint British-European committee.
With that, the British government is also raising the stakes or, if you prefer, unloading its weapon at the negotiating table.
This will continue anyway because A finance bill is also being drafted, which would also remove the power to establish it from the joint British-European body.what range of products flowing from Great Britain to Northern Ireland (risk products) should be taxed. In this case, the risk suggests that products flowing from Great Britain to Northern Ireland, as the EU common market, could continue to flow to Ireland without border controls, which is also part of the EU common market, thus allowing UK products enter the EU market without import duties.
The EU wants to avoid this in an understandable way (while it does not want to introduce border controls on the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland so as not to violate the Good Friday Convention), but the British want to torpedo precisely this delicate issue. It is important that If a free trade agreement between the EU and the British government could be concluded with zero tariffs, this whole matter would be resolved;Neither a joint body nor the British ministers should deal with the list of risk products, as products could continue to flow freely without border controls.
Both Boris Johnson and Chief Minister Michael Gove noted in Monday night’s parliamentary debate: they still want to reach an agreement with the EU and an important stage in this conciliation process is this bill and that is why parliamentarians are asked to vote on it. In Hungarian, parliamentarians are used to pressure, who are also asked to support a proposal that openly violates an international law and convention.
Bad omen ahead of Tuesday’s important vote
By the way, some were willing to play this game, despite opposition proposals from five former British prime ministers and two former attorneys general – at second reading. the bill is a 340: 263 transition in the lower house. However, two deputies from the ruling Conservative Party openly voted against it and another 30 deputies abstained. Thus, a total of 32 pro-government parliamentarians expressed their displeasure, directly or indirectly, in the first voting phase of the parliamentary adoption process, although not yet particularly significant (some abstained).
This is a bad omen for the governmentas it is enough for just over 40 pro-government MPs to rebel in next week’s vote and the government’s leadership is already failing. MEPs will vote on the amendments in the House of Commons next Tuesday, and one key appears to be Bob Neill’s proposal, which would require further parliamentary approval in advance to allow British ministers to deviate from the UK joint body’s decision. -UE established in the exit agreement. in the field of state aid. However, this does not solve the passport problem, which In essence, parliament is making the decision on sensitive issues, which is why some pro-government rebel MPs are pushing for Neill to wield stronger influence than the planned amendment, which would effectively limit the government’s room for maneuver over the exit deal from the European Union.
So next Tuesday’s event is key
But even if the domestic market bill passed through the lower house as the government intended, it could still get stuck in the upper house, where Johnson no longer has a majority.
In the meantime, however, it is feared that we are writing in October, so the ping-pong of the British bill will exceed the deadline of late September set by the EU for the repeal of the internal market law. The EU would then be expected to take action against the UK, but even then it would not leave the negotiating table, but An agreement with the British is expected until the EU summit on October 15, which begins that day, and an agreement is expected to be reached at the negotiating table in addition to all these games (weapons on the table). Therefore, the no-deal Brexit is not the only and most likely way out of this confusing situation, but its chances have certainly increased, especially if neither party has enough permission.
Cover Image Source: Kirsty Wigglesworth-WPA Pool / Getty Images
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