Brexit: Brits came up with the harshest blackmail, broke out in Brussels

The message sped up

In the run-up to the eighth round of trade talks between the EU and the UK in London, which begins now on Tuesday, there has been a lot of talk about Brexit, and the point is that the British government is trying to extort concessions with maximum pressure and blackmail in the two biggest clashes so far: the British system of state aid rules in place since January (which the EU would not allow the British to be too lax in their own well-conceived interests) and fishing rights in British territorial waters. To apply pressure:

• David Frost, head of the British negotiating delegation, declared in a Sunday newspaper that much of the government’s job is to raise awareness in the EU: we take what we say seriously and they must take our position seriously. That is, they say that the EU does not believe in its harshness because Theresa May’s government has allowed the EU on several points. Therefore, Frost stated that the British government is in no way afraid of the possibility that a bilateral trade agreement with the EU will not eventually be reached. It continues and even accelerates preparations in the event of non-compliance with the Convention and is ready to maintain its commercial relations with the Union in such circumstances.
• British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will repeat the main messages on television tonight, but a description of this has already been published in advance. As we wrote this morning, according to Johnson if there is no agreement before October 15, there will be no more agreement, that is, the transition period that expires at the end of December will not be extended And for the UK, this exit from the EU without a trade deal is also a good result. (In this case, trade relations will revert to normal WTO rules, i.e. customs duties and trade administrative obligations, other obstacles will reappear, while trade in the EU-UK relationship is currently running smoothly ).
• The message that “we take it seriously because we are really willing to leave the EU without a trade deal” is well reinforced by the Financial Times on Sunday night that an internal market bill will be published on Wednesday that Unilaterally and consciously overwrites the exit agreement reached with the EU last autumn and ratified by both parliaments in January this year; State aid and customs collection rules for Northern Ireland. Under the agreement 1) the UK government should inform the European Commission in advance about the state aid to be granted to Northern Ireland companies from 2021, as the distortion of the business environment in Northern Ireland would also affect the market within the EU, and 2) the agreement must provide declarations when the goods arrive in Great Britain. The latter is important because, in order to keep the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland open and avoid severe physical border controls, the British government and the EU have agreed that if a product enters Northern Ireland from the EU and is then redirected to Greater Britain, the As agent of the EU, the British government would have to collect the tax and the disputes would be decided by an EU court. By comparison, the current UK internal market bill would include addressing these issues the British Government would reserve the right to set its own rules in its own interest and in the interest of the United Kingdom.

What would this law mean if passed?

Therefore, the British government would seek to violate an international convention that it has adopted and ratified by the British Parliament with the law of the internal market to force the EU to soften its negotiating strategy while trying to hold the United Kingdom together after the withdrawal of the EU in 2021. is.

In the meantime, however, if the British fail to abide by the exit agreement, could provide a basis for the EU not to enter into a trade agreement with them (The British were warned by the president of the European Commission on Monday, see below). Thus, a sequel without a deal would seriously set the North and Scots on fire due to the economic consequences (border controls between Northern Ireland and Ireland could return, Scots would be ripped out of the EU against their will, etc.) and ultimately the unity of the UK could be compromised.

I am confident that the British government will implement the Withdrawal Agreement, an obligation under international law and a prerequisite for any future partnerships. The Protocol on Ireland / Northern Ireland is essential to protect peace and stability on the island and the integrity of the single market.

– Ursula (from) September 7, 2020

It also sends a very bad message that the UK is not complying with an international convention, etc. it would also hinder your own business the British government, which is working to conclude trade deals with as many countries as possible as soon as it leaves the EU after January.

Politico spoke with an EU diplomat who assessed the situation as apparently

Brexit ideology outweighed Brexit pragmatism,

and if the British government really doesn’t want to make a trade deal, then In this self-destructive process, the EU cannot deviate from the path either. Two EU diplomats told Reuters anonymously on Monday morning.

Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator on Brexit, also reacted briefly to the recent development in an interview with French radio Iter: he said that The negotiations are difficult and you are concerned about their outcome because the British government wants to achieve things that cannot be achieved at the same time. It called on Johnson to abide by an international agreement, because otherwise it would ensure avoiding a return to border controls between Northern Ireland and Ireland, while protecting the integrity of the EU single market, including the Northern Irish economy.

there are three possible explanations

The influential Brussels newspaper, based on its own connections, writes that one of the main drivers behind a possible unilateral cancellation of the exit agreement may be that Johnson and Frost are convinced that the exit agreement is riddled with internal contradictions and it seeks to remedy them by referring to the interests of the British people.

Based on these and other factors Three possible scenarios are recorded to interpret the situation:

1. The Johnsons really want to reach an agreement with the EU and they will do their best to ensure that EU Member States are willing to change the negotiating mandate given to Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier on state aid and fishing rights. If the British government can convince the EU negotiators that it is really willing to leave the EU without a deal, then it can achieve the desired changes to Barnier’s mandate.
2. The Johnsons have decided that they want to conclude trade negotiations with the EU, because they can’t get what they want anyway, but they want the EU to look like an outlaw scapegoat – they stopped negotiations (because the British government provided the basis for this with the Internal Market Act, which replaced the departure).
3. The Johnsons test the reaction of the hardline Brexit party of the ruling Conservative Party, which calls for a clearer break with the EU, where the border is and in the meantime diverting attention for a while from how the coronavirus epidemic is being handled. According to the newspaper, voices had already started pouring in from the hard-line camp Sunday night that there would be too much violation of an international treaty.

Of course, not only one of the three scenarios above can be the whole truth, but several motivations can be important at the same time, but it is certain that very few around Johnson can see the true intentions of the prime minister. The newspaper also hears from the environment of the Prime Minister that Johnson sees trade deal compatibility issue growing grimmerAlthough he warns against all this information, because before the EU summit last October there was news that there would be no agreement, and then the text of the exit agreement was reached at the last minute.

Failure to underestimate the chances of the UK leaving the EU without a trade deal has also affected currency markets: the pound fell to a two-week low of nearly 1% Monday afternoon against the dollar at 1.3150 and 0.8990 against the euro. Last week, JPMorgan gave a third chance that the country will eventually exit the EU without a deal next January:

Cover Image Source: WIktor Szymanowicz / NurPhoto via Getty Images