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Looking at current polls, many say they can’t be taken for granted because polls continued to have democratic superiority in 2016, but Republicans won. In fact, this is the case, but two things are very different from the situation at the time: On the one hand, the advantage of Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in the great battlefield states was never uniform, and we saw a tendency to the decline in the days leading up to the election, while Biden’s lead remained stable:
It’s not sure the trend is worth pointing out, because most Democratic voters have already voted on a letter, so Republicans may be more active on Election Day (not good news for them that the epidemic is peaking in several states, which are expected to have a Republican majority). . And it’s important to note that even if the polls were as big of an error as they were in 2016, that wouldn’t be enough for Trump either, because Biden’s lead is one percentage point higher than what Trump was underestimated 4 years ago:
Cover image: Getty Images
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