[ad_1]
US Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has greatly improved his popularity after his chaotic personal debate with Republican candidate Donald Trump on September 29, although we cannot say that he won the battle of the word.
US Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has fared better in recent days and in his discussion with President Donald Trump, a Republican candidate, than his opponent, according to measurements and estimates by many pollsters, and the presidential election has yet to take place. The FiveThirtyEight news portal commissioned the Ipsos polling institute to conduct a poll asking the same questions of the two candidates before and after the tangled and chaotic personal debate.
The main lesson of this is not surprising, the Americans, to put it mildly, were not impressed by the show they watched. It’s an open question if anyone has changed their favorite as a result of the word battle, but the poll doesn’t appear to have.
The main question in the poll was the probability that the respondent would vote for Biden or Trump, and what probability it would give to the victory of one or the other candidate. The responses indicated that respondents were slightly more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate after the debate, but at the same time they believe the party remains dubious.
One third to two thirds
The voting field of the two presidential candidates remained stable even before the debate, which did not change. However, Trump fans may be unhappy with their favorite performance because two-thirds of those surveyed said they performed poorly in front of television screens and saw that a similar proportion of their political offering was weaker than Biden’s. There is no such difference between the two polling stations at the national level.
Finally, the poll also revealed that voters on both sides were determined, with more than 90 percent of them saying they were sure or very likely to participate in the November 3 presidential election.
Others may play a role
However, there appears to be a role to play in judging candidates in addition to the generally thoughtful debate, as Good Judgment Inc., which makes predictions, has raised the Democratic president’s victory prediction and the Economist magazine poll since March. The poll chart (that is, a summary of the poll results) also shows Biden’s strength.
The Good Judgment still gave the Democratic nominee a 40 percent chance of victory in February, but he gradually rose, and his forecast reached 82 percent by the end of July. Subsequently, there were apparently no significant changes in prognosis. Good Judgment has built a global network of forecasting experts who formulate their expectations based on publicly available information.
Most of his forecasts are made for his clients for money, but the company headquarters pays the experts for the prediction of the presidential election. The big change that took place in one day was not only due to the debate, but obviously played a big role in it, as it was the most publicized global political event in recent days.
Models
FiveThirtyEight has also developed its own model for predicting the outcome of the presidential election, the latest version of which, released on September 30, says that Biden has a 78 percent chance of winning, similar to the 78.4 percent of the electorate. This model and Good Judgment are based on different methodologies, so the proximity of the two data is a work of chance.
The Economist graph has been produced since March from a summary of opinion polls. This currently gives Biden a 98 percent chance of winning the proportional vote, which doesn’t matter, and an 88 percent chance that the winner will win all in a principle-based system. According to this model, in March and April, the two candidates clashed, and then, on July 17, the scissors were opened more widely between them. He then predicted 352 electricity for Biden and 186 for Trump out of the 538 available. By September 24, the gap had narrowed to 330-208 and then by September 30, it had gradually expanded to 337-201.
[ad_2]
