The head of the team of mathematicians who help the government make decisions calculates that the coronavirus is no longer spreading only by those who come from abroad, so, according to him, the border blockade is not a sufficient solution.

Coronavirus: the second wave

Half a year after the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in the spring, the second wave of the pandemic has arrived. The radical increase in the number of infected is forcing more and more countries to re-impose restrictions, despite the fact that the world economy has not even recovered from the effects of the spring outbreak. According to the posters, the second wave also reached Hungary. Follow our news!

The reproductive value of the coronavirus epidemic in Hungary has been above 1 for some time, and in recent days it has increased a lot, currently it is estimated at 2-2.5 – said the briefcaseGergely Röst, Professor of Mathematics at the University of Szeged.

According to the head of the epidemiological mathematics team that helps the government’s decision making

the proportion of imported cases from abroad and related cases is less than 10 percent, the spread of the epidemic within the country is accelerating greatly. If this is true, then the unfavorable trend cannot be offset by border blocking.

It would be time to focus on domestic spread now, especially as school is starting, which will increase the number of plays, he added.

Gergely Röst estimates that a reduction in contact numbers of more than 60 percent is needed to quell the epidemic. In the first wave of the epidemic, the decrease in the number of contacts exceeded 60 percent nationwide and in Budapest it reached 90 percent in one period. Thanks to that, we were able to suppress the epidemic, ”he explained.

However, the drastic reduction in the number of contacts cannot be sustained in the long term and must therefore be triggered by other means. A combined strategy is needed: all distances must be maintained, but there is also an urgent need to improve hygiene, the use of masks in certain places, and the effectiveness of testing and contact tracking.


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