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Compared to the pre-epidemic situation, Fidesz has not lost a single voter, Jobbik and Momentum are fighting head-to-head for third place, according to Závecz Research’s November party preferences. It also turned out that one-on-one fights mobilize voters, but they can drop out due to the common opposition roster.
In August, Fidesz achieved the highest support rate in the legislature, at 36 percent of the total population. Since then, he has lost a little of his camp each month, 1 percentage point between October and November, Závecz Research said in a statement.
Based on party preferences in November, the ruling party currently stands at 31 percent, with as many voters as it did in early March, in the run-up to the coronavirus epidemic.
In second place in the party rankings is the Democratic Coalition (DK), which reached 10 percent last quarter and now stands at 11 percent. Meanwhile, the competition for Momentum and Jobbik for third place continues: now their support is exactly the same, 7-7 percent. Camp Momentum has expanded minimally by 1 percentage point since October, Jobbik has not changed. The MSZP remains at 5 percent, and support for LMP and Dialogue has remained the same at 2-2 percent. Our Country and the Two-Tailed Dog Party had a 2-2 percent camp in October, now 1-1 percent. The nonpartisan proportion is 32 percent.
Fidesz is also a leader among the party’s safe voters.
According to Závecz Research, among safe party voters, Fidesz has 47 percent, followed by DK, with 17 percent.
The push is supported by 11 percent of pledged voters and Jobbik by 10 percent. The MSZP would receive 7 percent of active voters, Nuestro País, the LMP, the Party of the Two-Tailed Dog and the Dialogue would receive 2 to 2 percent according to a survey conducted among the country’s adult population in the first fortnight of November.
Six opposition parties have already agreed to nominate joint individual MPs in the 106 electoral districts and will nominate them and the joint prime ministerial candidate by October 23 next year. As a result of the current intention to change the law, their list will almost certainly be common as well, wrote Závecz Research. (On Tuesday, it turned out that Fidesz members of the Judiciary Committee supported the proposal by János Volner, a former right-wing and later independent representative, to add 71 individual candidates to the national list.) The voters involved were approx. One tenth would consider the single list convenient, one tenth multiple lists, one tenth cannot accept a job. However, it turned out that
If there was only one choice between Fidesz-KDNP and a joint list of the six opposition parties, there would be close competition.
In the August poll, 39 percent of voters reportedly voted for the ruling party and 37 percent for the opposition. As then, as now the duel is fierce, the results this time lean towards the cooperation of six parties: 37 percent rank behind the opposition list, and 34 percent support the ruling party. Other party lists were also mentioned, a total of 2 percent, typically Our Homeland and Two-Tailed Dog Party.
According to Tibor Závecz, such competition activates the voters, compared to the issue of multi-party preference, there is less uncertainty, passivity and reserve: 27 percent instead of 32.
According to Závecz Research, new supporters of the insecure group are arriving on the Fidesz – KDNP list, only sporadically, barely noticeable from other parties. The investigation also revealed that while Fidesz voters fully support their party in a doubles competition,
until then, there are defectors in the opposition.
96 percent of DKs, 94-94 percent of instant talkers, 92 percent of MSZPs, and 90 percent of LMPs also remain common list voters. For Jobbik fans, that rate is slightly less than 81 percent. The opposition can replace insecure and missing voters with insecure ones. As supporters of the Fidesz-KDNP list are slightly more active than those of the common opposition list, the results are essentially the same among safe voters: the former stands at 49% and the latter at 50% .
The advantage of the common opposition list is felt mainly among those over 60 and residents of Budapest (43-32 and 45-35 percent, respectively). The substantial dominance of the Fidesz – KDNP list is found among the group of graduates from vocational training and vocational schools and among those living in the village (39-31 and 37-27 percent, respectively).
Data collection from November 3 to 17. with a personal interview with 1,000 Hungarian citizens over 18 years of age. Závecz’s methodology is carried out with the so-called stratified sampling in two stages, a method that guarantees complete randomness, that is, all adult Hungarian citizens have the same chances of being included in the sample.
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