In his blog, the political scientist Gábor Török analyzed whether there is a possibility of a change of government and summarized in three points what is needed for the success of the opposition and what weakens Fidesz.

According to the political scientist, an important factor has changed compared to previous years: the crisis caused by the coronavirus epidemic can create an environment of deculturality unprecedented at the time of the reign of the Fidesz governments, and this could erode the party field .

When this indicator was more favorable than before, Fidesz-KDNP moved up, when it decreased, the popularity of the government side also decreased. Thus, if the year and a half before the elections is accompanied by a significant economic recession, it is conceivable (based on what has been done so far) that it will undermine government support to some extent.

Write Turkish.

There may also be a significant difference from previous elections in that there is a possibility: the opposition will jointly nominate a candidate in District 106.

It took a long time for the terms of this decision to be understood, but now it seems that the opposition parties, for many reasons, have reached this point ”.

The analyst explained.

The “third change compared to the first two is banal” according to Turkey: in 2022, Fidesz will have been in power for 12 years, political rust and voter insults may be stronger than before.

Gábor Török also summarized in three points what he is speaking against the change of government. Most importantly, he said, the power plant is still performing very well today, and the resources are almost limitless.

The absolutization of political logic, the continuous campaign mode, the primacy of political communication also became a great advantage for Fidesz in the previous elections.

– writes.

The Gyurcsány issue also remained on the agenda, characterized by the phrase “neither spit nor swallow.” He sees that the compulsion to cooperate also brings up this problem, and the “power factory” does its best to keep it in mind.

The opposition state also speaks in favor of stability, according to Turk: its internal situation is worse than before. According to the political scientist, the crisis of the opposition is acute and continuous in at least three areas: leadership, content-thematic and material.

  • They do not have a politician who may have the opportunity to take the initiative (perhaps only Gergely Karácsony, but his ambition is also unclear).
  • The opposition has almost nothing to say about itself, its objectives, its issues, other than that they want to replace the Orbán government.
  • He had no more money, no means, or areas of influence than in previous cycles.

The Turk finally asks the question: how much chance does the opposition have? According to him, it seems more than before. What is not seen today: what may be enough.


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Gábor Török: The fate of the Index is ultimately decided at Fidesz


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At home

“After all, the owners are there now,” writes the political analyst.

Gábor Török:


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At home

According to Gábor Török, it has never been the case that a government loses an election if it is so popular at halftime.