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Ferenc Jakab, the head of the Pécs group of virologists, who was appointed head of the government’s coronavirus research group in the spring and was present at the action group’s meeting in September, is very concerned about the epidemic. “If we find this loss like a fast train in this trend, we will be depleting our health capacity very quickly and it could be a problem.”– He said in an online conversation attended by the immunologist András Falus and the pediatricians Tamás Constantin and Dániel Tordas. “We do not see the plateau or the peak of the epidemic nor do we do anything. The numbers are increasing. “
According to James, “if everything continues like this and more serious measures are not taken”, the number of infections will increase dramatically in the next month. The average age of those infected is already rising: a few weeks ago it was still around 30, now it has reached 40. He said that it is to be expected that the elderly will become more and more infected, so more people will be hospitalized, ventilated and the number of deaths will also increase. “What is still very scary that it explodes in nursing homes, social institutions as well.”
According to Jakab, we are also slowly depleting our testing capabilities.
He also criticized the mandatory measurement of school fever introduced as of October 1, which “does not make professional or epidemiological sense, it is an irrelevant decision.” He justified this on the grounds that
- those infected, especially children, often do not have a fever,
- asymptomatic patients do not have a fever,
- and those infected can transmit the virus 1-2 days before the onset of symptoms.
According to him, if a parent behaves responsibly, he will not take his sick child to school anyway, otherwise he can also give him an antipyretic. Thus, in turn, “there will be crowding without a mask” hundreds of children in the cold, “and the asymptomatic will be wonderfully infected while waiting for their forehead to be pinched in a completely unnecessary way.
It would make more sense to have a fever if it did not happen at the entrance but inside, in the classroom, avoiding mass scenes.
It has also hatched against “unprofessional and demagogic” virus skeptics. He said he feels sadness and despair because “we are in an epidemic that could be controlled with normal and rational thoughts and actions and by following the rules. We must not stop the country, the economy. You just have to think seriously, with peasant common sense, about what the experts say ”.
András Falus spoke in part about the development of vaccines. He is optimistic because it generally takes 4 to 5 years from the start of trials to administration of the vaccine, but now in 6 to 7 months there has been great progress. He says a lot of help with virus research is that major scientific journals like Nature or Science make their best articles available for free. In Nature, for example, a detailed summary of the status of vaccine developments was recently published.
According to Jakab, the development at Oxford is the most reassuring, and Hungary has also seized five million doses. “I am sure that it will arrive in Hungary in the first half of 2021 and if all goes well, mass vaccinations can begin. After that, we can expect the epidemic to subside. Until then, I am not optimistic, but the vaccines are going well, I see the light at the end of the tunnel ”.
According to the village, there is a good chance that more vaccines will be used in the world, and young people are probably worth vaccinating differently than the elderly. But it is not yet known how long they will be protected, how many times the vaccination will have to be repeated, or what drugs can be added.
Experts no longer count
It is not the first time that Ferenc Jakab warns that the epidemic has broken out seriously in the country. In a conversation in Pécs two weeks ago, he predicted an increase in deaths, which has happened since then.
In addition, other researchers, even those who do analysis for the government, see the situation as dangerous (for example, the mathematician Gergely Röst), but now they listen less to his advice than in the spring. We wrote in detail a few days ago that Viktor Orbán does not trust virologists so much, strategic decisions are increasingly determined by economic and political arguments.
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