A turn may come in Russia, in search of Putin’s successor

Vladimir Putin has exhausted his political reserves. Even the summer referendum on constitutional changes did not bring him the resumption that he might have expected from him. Although the Russian head of state may remain physically in power for a long time, a significant number of voters already see him as a lame duck looking for a way out of politics. No one, not even his loyal supporters, expects Russia’s situation to improve while Putin is at the helm, begins a prospective article in the Moscow Times by former political analyst Abbas Gallyamov and former President Vladimir Putin.

Gallyamov, who may know the thinking of the president from his previous job, believes that the only real question is when will Putin’s regression end and who can sit in his seat at the Russian head of state. In Russia, traditionally, the prime minister ranks first among possible successors to the number one leader. Therefore, we can say that the appointment of Mikhail Misustin to this position was one of the most important events in Russian politics in 2020.

Decision

Thanks to the constitutional reform, Putin will be able to run in the 2024 presidential elections, as this has started a new era in the Russian public law system, saying that previous presidential cycles should not be taken into account when running for the office of chief. of State. However, according to the author of a Moscow Times article, he may decide not to start. This may be encouraged by the fate of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who is no longer accepted as president by Belarusians and who, despite harassment from protesters, are expressing their views on an endless demonstration.

The head of state’s confidence index has fallen below 50 percent, suggesting that more than half of Russians would not vote for him if the presidential election were on Sunday now, and while that figure could fluctuate, it is unlikely to increase in the long term. It is much more likely that it was a permanent decline. Therefore, Putin may think that he will formally hand over power to a reliable successor other than Lukashenko’s fate.

Ugly

The popularity rating of the president and prime minister, according to polls by Russia’s last independent polling institute, the Levada Center, has moved in the opposite direction in recent months. If Putin improves, Missustin worsens and vice versa. This suggests that many heads of government see the country as a possible successor leader.

This may have been reinforced by the change of government in November. This is because ministers who are not primarily known for their loyalty to Putin, but who are considered the “people” of Missustin. This may indicate that Putin might not only seriously consider handing over power to his prime minister, but may have already decided to do so, the former Russian spokesman said.

Opposition

The official Russian opposition faces major action in 2021, with parliamentary elections in September. Two developments in this area deserve attention. One of the second largest parties in the Duma, behind a Russia united in support of the president, is the radicalization of the Communist Party’s field membership. One prompted the party’s leadership to encourage voters to reject Putin’s constitutional reform in his referendum campaign and come up with their own constitutional proposals. Now it is planned to line up one million observers to prevent fraud in the Duma elections.

Another development is the emergence of a strong right-wing opposition party, the New People, alongside United Russia. The fact that the Kremlin did not prevent him from running in the last local elections suggests that it wants to prevent the erosion and radicalization of the regime’s social base. The accepted political appearance ensures the relief of tension, which was reflected in the fact that the Pueblo Nuevo was able to win the elections, even winning against the ruling party.

Navalnij

The third major event on the side of the opposition was the failed assassination attempt on Alexei Navalny outside the system, which significantly reduced the popularity of the politician, who successfully faced the threat of death. The Kremlin has no response to the challenge posed by Navalny’s call for a “smart vote”, namely that the leader of the opposition encourages voters to cast their vote in each constituency against the strongest opponent of the country’s opposition. pro-government runner, even one of Her Majesty’s opponents. candidate party.

According to a writer of the Moscow Times article, Navalny could be a political trigger amid increased attention to politics due to the elections, as was Vladimir Ilyich Lenin in April 2017. The Bolshevik leader returned home from exile saying that While the political elite at the time believed that radical political change would end with a victorious anti-tsarist revolution in February, they declared that a true popular revolution and a change of power was needed. With this, he thoroughly warmed up with the elite who came to power after the fall of the tsar.

Humor changes

Another important event in recent months has been the relentless protest in Khabarovsk. In the Siberian city, the popular mayor was removed from his seat by the authorities, citing an old case, but the locals do not rest on him. This showed that it was not only in Moscow or possibly St. Petersburg that the opposition could set foot. What happened in a settlement near the border with China, seen from Moscow at the end of the world, can be repeated in any part of the country.

In Russia, in opinion polls, the more strongly people support political regimes, the stronger they become, the more immovable they seem. This mood has so far favored the Kremlin, but the events mentioned suggest that the winds may turn around. There are growing signs that Putin’s system has depleted its reserves, lost its strength, and changes are inevitable. So you can also lose people’s loyalty.