A little everyone won with the commitment of the EU, but especially Orban

The EU leadership appears to have agreed with the Hungarian and Polish governments to lift their veto on the European Union’s seven-year budget and to adopt a € 750 billion coronavir rescue package in exchange for certain concessions. The veto was influenced because they did not like the rule of law mechanism, which would allow the withdrawal of EU money from Member States that do not respect the democratic principles outlined in the legislation on the functioning of the Union.

Therefore, the Hungarians and the Poles had no problems with the economic rescue package that involved the budget or joint borrowing, but with enforcing the rule of law, more precisely, they wanted to use the mechanism against them selectively. But the introduction of the rule of law mechanism cannot be avoided because a qualified majority is sufficient to adopt it. However, the seven-year budget must be voted on by all member states.

For a time, the European Union seemed stubborn this time, not allowing blackmail, accepting the rule of law mechanism and accepting the rescue package without Hungary and Poland, with some slip. However, last night there was news that he was talking about this in Warsaw. Viktor Orban also that positions were converging. And it seems that he is giving the presidency of the union Angela Merkel also through the mediation of the German Chancellor.

The essence of the compromise is that the Hungarians and the Poles agree that there will be a rule of law mechanism, and the Germans have allowed it not to be confronted immediately.

What’s in the deal?

Based on leaked news

• The rule of law mechanism will be adopted with the approval of the Tripartite Commission, the European Parliament and the European Council.
• They are accompanied by a manual that explains how to request it. For example, that it does not apply to migration and family matters (despite the fact that the Hungarian government has stated that Brussels wants to force its position on these matters) and that the mechanism can only be used if democratic principles are violated. it also affects the EU budget. This has been the case in principle so far, but the Orbán government wants to regulate as precisely as possible what constitutes corruption and wants it to be addressed only in the rule of law mechanism.
• The most important thing is that the mechanism is accepted but frozen. The governments of Hungary and Poland can appeal to the Court of Justice of the European Communities, which will rule on this at the earliest in 2022 if it works at the pace so far. Therefore, the mechanism will exist, but it cannot be applied for another two years.

Who won?

A little all, but especially Viktor Orbán, who in his last video already talks about landing in Brussels.

When it was leaked last week that the Poles renounced the veto, we wrote that Orbán lost the match. But the Poles did not renounce the veto, it was an interpretation of the deputy prime minister of the smaller ruling party, but they sought to soften the mechanism of the rule of law, as did Orbán. According to the news, the Hungarian Prime Minister asked Angela Merkel months ago that the mechanism could not be applied before the 2022 parliamentary elections. And now it has achieved this: by April 2022, it is unlikely that an EU procedure will be launched. stop subsidizing Hungary.

Therefore, the cabinet will be able to spend the EU subsidies again next year to revive the economy devastated by the coronavirus, and will only have to face the consequences of violating the rule of law after the elections, whoever becomes Prime Minister.

What is the lesson?

It is important to note that this is not entirely certain. There will be another summit of EU leaders from Thursday to Friday, at which point everything that has just been leaked now can be decided. But if everything continues as it seems now, two lessons can be learned:

• One is that no matter how much Germans talk about the rule of law, in the end the money is the lord. As the pressure of the financial consequences of the Hungarian-Polish veto seemed closer and closer, Germany was ready to make more and more concessions to blackmail. This could even have consequences, because in several northern member states, including Germany, it is already a matter of domestic politics why union leaders always allow blackmail by autocrats, especially Orbán. Among the merits of Orbán, it should be noted that, although it did not seem so at first, he evaluated well how much retreat the EU leaders are capable of making in terms of money (in this case, mainly to revitalize the economies of the southern states ). The Hungarian prime minister is still very comfortable with the nature of how the union works, even if he has now been a bit responsible.
• The other is that Viktor Orbán did not have a problem primarily with the rule of law mechanism, but with the fact that they could take money from Hungary before the 2022 elections, which would make it more difficult for him to win the elections. Orbán’s eyes remain fixed on the ball and he knows with certainty that his power is based on a large parliamentary majority, the only party that should never lose. This recognition is also behind EU policy and government responses to the coronavirus.