Something was largely overlooked in the Austrian lab results.

In Austria, restrictive measures taken to curb the Covid-19 epidemic began to lift slowly, carefully and gradually. For the first time since Easter, smaller stores could reopen, and even in schools, under strict restrictions, life could resume in several stages after a long time.

After a long weekend on May 1, first graduation and graduation classes returned to the benches, and then, with strict restrictions, the other students were also sent back to schools with two-week slips. Meanwhile, after Easter, some of the stores selling nonessential products were already open, though in the meantime the mandatory use of masks was also introduced. After May 1, you can also visit the shopping malls again.

In Hungary, certain restrictions were also lifted in rural areas, the first such step by the Hungarian government since the introduction of strict measures. The similarities and differences between the measures of the two countries compare quite well in the article in the Index below. Based on this, it seems that the two countries have taken the same measures to curb the epidemic, so it may even be justified that the Hungarian government take similar measures almost a month after the announcement of the Austrian resignations, given the restrictions imposed on it. weather.

It is difficult to compare

The extent to which the epidemic has slowed in the two countries is quite difficult to compare according to official statistics.

While in Austria, according to official data, a total of 15,650 cases have been registered since the beginning of the epidemic, in Hungary the figure (based on May 5) is only 3,065. However, as Austria has a higher proportion of cases already recovered, the number of active cases is already lower than in Hungary in 1582 compared to Hungarian in 1993. The big difference in the number of registered cases is presumably the number of tests performed (possibly due to its quality). While in Austria, according to data from the Ministry of Social Affairs and Health, a little more than 279 thousand tests have been carried out so far, in Hungary this number is slightly below 86 thousand.

Also, a non-test based test in the two countries probably does not match how many and what positive test results someone shows up in statistics as a case. Given that both the test protocol and the number of tests performed differ between the two countries, the number of cases and the number of new cases registered per day is unlikely to provide a comparable picture when evaluating the course of the epidemic.

Perhaps the number of Covid-19 patients needing hospital care and the number of people needing intensive hospital care can more clearly show where the epidemic is in the country or region. On the basis of this, however, it appears that maintaining restrictive measures in Hungary may be justified. In Austria, Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz first spoke on April 6 about reducing restrictions after Easter if processes remain favorable. There may be a reason for optimism, as according to official data, the number of people infected with Covid-19 needing hospital care peaked at 1,110 in the country on March 31, and by that time the number was only it had stagnated or decreased slightly for a week.

In Austria, the numbers are already falling.

Since then, the first wave of the epidemic has been shown to be ending in Austria for the time being. The number of active cases in official statistics has steadily declined from the peak of 9,322 on April 2 to the above-mentioned level of 1,582 people. More importantly, meanwhile, the number of Covid-19 infections treated in the hospital is also steadily declining. After April 15, it fell permanently to less than a thousand, and now that number has dropped to 418. The development of the number of people needing intensive care followed the trend with a delay of a week, it was at its peak on 8 April, when 267 intensive care units were occupied by coronavirus patients, it has now dropped to 104.

What is spectacular in Austrian statistics is that restrictive measures have really slowed down the epidemic and this has also appeared in statistics with a 2-3 week delay. It is not yet known exactly what measurements, or if together they gave the desired result, and it is difficult to measure. The children went to school for the last time on March 13, and the bars and restaurants were open until 3 p.m. on the 16th and 17th, but not later. Since March 20, a massive transfer of workers has been ordered to work from home. One thing is for sure, if we look at the cases in the hospital, they peaked on March 31, 17 days after the last school day, 12 days after the final closure of restaurants and bars, and 11 days after the effective date. of the general regulation of the home office.

According to the German Robert Koch Institute, the average incubation time for Covid-19 is 5-6 days, making it the time between infection and disease. Furthermore, according to the studies they mentioned, patients admitted to the hospital are admitted to institutions an average of 4 to 5 days after the onset of the disease. Taking this into account, the image is quite realistic, according to which it is possible to feel its impact on the statistics 2-3 weeks after the measures take effect.

Whatever steps led to the curve for the number of infected patients who are active and need hospital care that is reversed from the initial exponential jump, the point is that the impact of the measures is clearly visible in Austrian statistics. But not only that, but it also appears that the lifting of the restrictions and their timetable, even in a highly conditional way, was announced only when a reduction in the number of hospital cases had already been seen. And the first mitigation step occurred when the number of intensive care units had already started to decrease.

Hungarian data is very different.

In comparison, Hungarian statistics show a completely different picture. In the statistics provided by the government, we do not know how comparable the number of patients with ventilators is in the statistics provided by the government to the number of patients in intensive care in the Austrian figures. If we cover the same, we can see that so far fewer Covid-19 patients have been ventilated in Hungary than in Austria. But it also seems that in Hungary the number of patients who go to the ventilator is much lower in Hungary compared to hospital cases.

While the Austrian curve shows a massive turnaround in the number of active cases after a rapid increase in the second and third weeks after the introduction of restrictions, in Hungary neither the number of active cases nor the number of hospitalized patients show a turnaround. positive. It is true that, for the moment, in Hungary, official data do not show the phase of strong increase that could be experienced in Austria. The number of patients on the ventilator is only the one where a minimal decrease can be detected, but it is also only because their number increased by 20 on April 21 and then fell again the same amount the next day.

It must first be reversed, then relieved

The big difference, then, is that Austria has already had an explosive phase of the epidemic, with a sharp increase in the number of infected and hospitalized patients, but this was handled at the last minute and reversed. In Hungary, on the other hand, the explosive phase has so far been avoided, but a positive turnaround similar to that of Austria has not been achieved. This difference may be due to the seriousness of the measures taken, such as the fact that non-essential stores were finally closed in Austria in mid-March, while in Hungary they could remain open for a limited time. But it may be that the Austrian model has been more successful so far (in terms of trend rather than absolute numbers) due to more massive and efficient contact testing and research.

One thing is certain, however, that the positive change that the Austrians were able to show before the reopening cannot be detected in Hungarian statistics. This is a decrease in the number of coronavirus patients treated in the hospital and the number of active cases.