[ad_1]
Starting May 11, we will only provide our Signature content to our readers with single access. Learn more
The outbreak of the epidemic.
Li Ven-liang informed his staff in late December that pneumonia was occurring in Wuhan. The doctor suspected the return of the SARS virus, which also started in China 17 years ago. After a letter from his colleagues, authorities later visited him at his home, accusing him of disrupting social order and spreading false news. He had to sign a statement to that effect while the Chinese government continued to hide the real risk of the virus for a long time, stressing that there were no signs of person-to-person transmission.
International investigative journalists played a key role in letting the world know more about the epidemic than Chinese authorities (and state-controlled media) reported. The Communist Party maintained control of social networks, eliminated newspaper or public reports, videos, and whoever dared to write the reality was retaliated against. We also know the end of the story well: Li Ven-liang died of a coronavirus, and Beijing no longer even interprets the story as a coronavirus. The country talks of an epidemic of unknown origin, blames the United States, and says the world is “grateful to China” for handling the epidemic.
The situation is a perfect reflection of what happens in the country every day. The kind of repression that is happening, and also how people live in the most populous country in the world, whose GDP could be the largest in the world in a decade, if things continue as before. I mean, it came at the sight of that
It will be the largest economy in the world, one of the most authoritarian regimes on the planet.
Hsi Qin-ping is one of the greatest oppressors
In the spring of 2018, the Chinese parliament voted to amend the constitution to remove the restriction on the mandate of the Chinese head of state. Xin Qing-ping has been the most powerful leader in decades, whose position as party secretary-general was confirmed in the fall of 2017 at the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress. It had already begun to consolidate its power, push its rivals into the background, pave the way for the realization of its program, for tighter state control and for stronger diplomacy.
The program also included incorporating his thoughts on theoretical issues into the party’s constitution and further strengthening his cult of personality. Of course, social media was still censored, blocking users who voiced their concerns, and especially those who compared the changes to North Korea. Hszi governs intolerance of contradiction, subordinating practically everything to the consolidation of his power. China is determined to be the world’s number one power through the One Zone Program, One Road (New Silk Road).
China continues to keep secrets
China has also chosen a secret strategy in a period of global spread of the epidemic. Several countries have asked China to make public all information about the coronavirus, including that related to the spread of the virus. The United States increasingly considers the virus to have been released from a BSL-4 level laboratory in Wuhan, where the most dangerous viruses and bacteria are being experienced. The US Secretary of State. The US, Mike Pompeo, said the best way for the Chinese government to cooperate would be to open Wuhan to the world and allow scientists from around the world to map out exactly how this situation developed. The foreign minister pointed out that democracies do not act like China, which accused the country of lack of transparency.
China, on the other hand, defends itself by saying that, according to the WHO, there is no evidence that the coronavirus came from the laboratory. United States President Donald Trump spoke about launching an investigation to find out how China handled the epidemic and to what extent it was responsible for its outbreak. He later bluntly said that he saw evidence of a link between the coronavirus and the Wuhan Laboratory. According to the president, the spread of the virus could have been stopped at its source, preventing it from spreading worldwide. And Pompeo put it bluntly, they have evidence that the virus comes from Wuhan’s lab.
No one knows if all this is true, but the words of Trump and Pompeo do not have to surprise the world. International researchers had warned years ago about the risks surrounding the opening of BSL-4 level laboratories in China; in a country where, according to many researchers, transparency is far from being known, while transparency is paramount in the operation of such institutions. Particularly disturbing in this regard is also the fact that the SARS virus has been shown to be released from Chinese laboratories on several occasions in the past.
In this situation, Yuan Chinging, head of the Wuhan Virology Institute, also had to speak, saying there was no reason for the allegations that a new type of virus causing the pandemic came from the Wuhan laboratory. (The lab is 10 miles from the fish market where the infection was previously suspected.) He believes that in recent years there has been an increase in risk due to the close relationship between humans and wildlife, global climate change and the continued expansion of human activity. Yuan Qinging rejected allegations that a virus extracted from bats for research was accidentally released from his laboratory. His words may even reassure people, but constant misinformation, censorship, and increasing darkness do not strengthen the credibility of the communist regime, and China does not allow WHO to participate in a study investigating the origins of the coronavirus.
Even tougher government control
China has not moved at all towards transparency in recent weeks, as it has introduced restrictions on scientific publications on SARS-CoV-2. The publication of this research should no longer be supported not only by actors in the scientific community, but also by government and ministerial officials who put the interests of the Communist leadership first. Guidance on the new directive was briefly available, including on the Fudan University website, but was removed, saying it was “for internal use.”
All of this will further hinder the disclosure of credible information about the virus, as the government will seek to deepen account investigation that is negative for China. However, this poses serious difficulty for everyone in the current management of the epidemic, while suspicion that China is secret is growing. Intelligence reports confirm that China also manipulated mortality data during the epidemic, thus underestimating the impact of a possible pandemic and crisis.
International trade and dependency
In light of all this, it can be said that a country with a dictatorial regime, without control over the press, most of the news and data are handled regularly, and most of the hygiene conditions and eating habits of the country ( potentially dangerous to humans) are an important part of international trade. delights “) are far from satisfactory.
At the time of the SARS epidemic in 2003, China’s role in the world economy was much less, accounting for 4% of world GDP, but now between 15 and 16%, while Chinese tourists have also flooded the world. Therefore, on the one hand, the impact of SARS had moderate global economic consequences compared to the present, and on the other hand, it did not lead to a large-scale epidemic like the new coronavirus. In addition to its infectivity, the worldwide spread of the epidemic has been favored both by the explosive growth in international trade seen in recent years and by the freer flow of people.
But let us also not forget the responsibility of Western countries. This is because the rise of China was mainly due to western countries, which, apart from Donald Trump’s trade war, have been practically inactive when observing the strengthening of the communist dictatorship in recent decades, since Chinese production cheap has helped increase prosperity in the West. The prosperity of Western countries in recent decades (relocation of production to developing countries) is due in part to the fact that people in China (and other emerging countries) have worked incredibly cheaply for an incredible amount. And this is not really of interest to many but to a few advocates and activists, as companies aim to maximize profits and politicians aim to increase their country’s prosperity in the short term. And the relocation of production in all cases results in much higher costs, although there is no doubt that Trump’s rhetoric reflected the relocation of production to the United States years ago.
China at the WTO
China was admitted to the WTO in 2001, entering a 15-year process. In addition to increased international trade, many expected membership to liberalize and democratize China. In fact, China has become a dominant part of world trade in recent decades, but there has been no democratic change at all, and indeed, after 2017, China has accelerated the construction of a dictatorship that poses a threat to all the world. (Our boxed article, “Hsi Qin-ping rises among the greatest oppressors.”) China has recently ignored the rules of the game in international trade, but has benefited from free trade, making one of the world’s toughest dictatorships the soul of the entire world population. At the same time, the WTO has weakened, and international trade rules and compliance are no longer up to the challenges of the time.
However, it took the world’s largest economies for the coronavirus epidemic to think about China’s exposure and the need to change that. European Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan said they were working to reduce trade dependency after the pandemic, and former French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire asked manufacturing companies to undergo an in-depth review of their supply chains, saying the new coronavirus epidemic was clear. showed excessive dependence on Chinese suppliers.
Meanwhile, Japan has already taken concrete steps to establish a $ 2.2 billion fund for Japanese companies to relocate their production at home from China. Although the USA USA They do not yet have an official program to repatriate the companies, it has already been hinted that there will be consequences for Chinese events, including a reduction in Chinese production by some American companies. Although it has been suggested in recent years that multinational companies are relocating their production from China due to rising costs, this may be accelerating, especially with regard to defense and medical equipment. The current situation has drawn attention to the fact that many countries in the world depend on medicines, raw materials and defense equipment made in China.
Florida Senator Marco Rubio said it was unfortunate that it was a pandemic to make clear the consequences of relocating the industry in countries like China, drawing attention to vulnerability risks and supply chains. However, “moving” from China does not necessarily mean that companies return to the US. Instead, they choose another country where they can shorten production chains or find the safest production. Companies that heavily automate their production are more likely to return to the US. Since the burden of living labor in many cases would not make production profitable.
In the case of health products, there will certainly be a major realignment in terms of production, while more modest changes are expected in other industries in the short term, if only because multinational companies are also selling to the Chinese domestic market. Therefore, even if they establish production bases elsewhere to diversify risks, they will not completely cease their Chinese production. However, with strong state programs, China’s “emigration” may increase, the question is how much emphasis will governments put on this. The strongest argument against moving is always that it would be too expensive, so state subsidies can play an important role in advocacy.
No matter what happened
China will certainly want to avoid this and will commit to continuing to operate its scientific, economic life and reporting habits in a more transparent manner. In reality, however, it will not take concrete action. Ultimately, the origin of the epidemic (laboratory or fish market), the Chinese dictatorial system and the resulting attitude contributed significantly to the pandemic is virtually irrelevant. China did not show enough cooperation when the epidemic broke out, kept it a secret, and then blamed others for the pandemic outbreak instead of sharing all the information with the world, but even withheld it from its own citizens. In other words, all the scenarios pose the responsibility of a communist regime based on lies.
Many believe that the current coronavirus epidemic could cause a reversal of globalization, while international organizations warn that it could have a severe economic cost. The reversal of globalization could bring protectionism, which could cause strong shocks in the world economy and increase the possibility of a long-term combination of long-term stagnation and rapid price increases (stagflation).
Well, the economic price is really inevitable, the only question is how and how much will the world pay in the current situation. Fortunately, it will not be about reversing globalization, but the possibility of a better new globalization in the coming period.
For a transparent globalization, it ensures equality between the parties, peace and the health of its citizens. This is because China has failed to meet any of these in recent years, causing negative externalities to the world that have now become unmanageable. There may now be room for globalization where a country’s activities (whether related to emissions, consumption of bats and pineapple, hygiene problems, or a super laboratory crisis) cannot endanger the safety and lives of citizens of another country. It would be a vain dream to believe that this risk can be reduced to almost zero, but it can be significantly reduced compared to now.
Authoritarian and hybrid regimes, which do not follow the rules of the game and do not move towards democratization, must be increasingly excluded from international trade and their activities must be monitored more vigorously than before by national security and intelligence agencies. Suffice it to think that even now, these countries have manipulated, concealed their own coronavirus morbidity and mortality data, giving the rest of the world no opportunity to act in time. Such was the case in Iran (where disinformation also took place), to which the first Hungarian diseases can be attributed. If experts later find an imbalance of concern, restrictions and bans should be immediately imposed on the country’s leaders and citizens (hybrid or dictatorial). The new rules of the game don’t have to be complicated: any country moving towards democratization must be helped to develop, participate in international trade, which in turn approaches hybrid and authoritarian regimes, and must be severely sanctioned. This is the only way to make life in a democratic and developed world similar to what we might have known before 2020. Otherwise, the era of epidemics may really be waiting for us.
An area, a path
The coronavirus epidemic also delayed the New Silk Road project. The confidence of many countries can shake the Single Zone, in a way, even more countries will be particularly vulnerable to Chinese capital in the current difficult situation. For now, one thing is for sure: disruption of supply chains, shortages of raw materials, and restrictive measures introduced by individual governments will certainly delay all investment in infrastructure, increasing uncertainty about the implementation of future plans. .
According to a report, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe are not really satisfied with the cooperation with China in the recent period, but Hungary is certainly an exception, as it has recently signed a loan agreement for the Budapest-Belgrade railway line. The 17 + 1 countries are not happy that their foreign trade deficit with China has increased since the initiative’s inception and wish for much greater economic benefits from cooperating with Beijing.
The Portfolio has previously shown that China wants to become a world power through a gigantic project that goes far beyond infrastructure development. However, China’s lending policy is opaque, the details of credit schemes are unknown, and several countries to which China has lent (excessively) have been in trouble recently. And China has ruthlessly asserted its geostrategic interests in these cases, making several countries slaves to debt. An increase in these cases can also be expected in the current period, marked by a particularly deep recession, while China can act arbitrarily in its rescue function (export of medical devices to epidemic countries).
Basically, China does not have to pay compensation, since in this way there is no guarantee that history will not repeat itself, in addition, the hundreds of thousands of lives caused by the epidemic cannot be compensated in money. Systemic changes would be necessary in the country, as China’s negative externalities have become unbearable for the world, but not only in China, but in all the hybrid and authoritarian regimes whose presence is increasing in international trade and tourism. Since the negative (not exhausting) external impact of one of the world’s most authoritarian regimes cannot be reduced significantly and quickly (since the Chinese leadership certainly does not show openness), the world needs to reduce China’s “presence” in the countries they want to return to. return people to their old lives. Scientists must establish the criteria by which a country can safely participate in international trade without posing a particular threat to citizens of other countries. A rapid movement towards democracy, the establishment and maintenance of press freedom, the suppression of the ecological footprint and higher standards of hygiene must be part of the new set of rules, since the integrity of the Earth and the security of the Inhabitants of the world cannot be guaranteed otherwise. The steps will certainly not be as defined, but we can not wait less, as it is about our future.
Cover image: Getty Images
[ad_2]
