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“Sorry now, we shouldn’t have lifted the state of emergency,” these times are not good at other times, but especially during a coronavirus epidemic, if that’s what an epidemiological consultant says. Speaking to Time, it was Kijosi Nagasze who, at the request of the local leadership, helped ease restrictions on Japan’s second largest island, Hokkaido, which was almost the size of Hungary, but only inhabited by 5.3 million people. , for the first time in the country in late February. even on March 18.
In trying, the island finally showed a path that would not be worth following:
Hokkaido also became the first in mid-April to introduce the restrictions a second time. However, in return, it can serve as an important lesson for any country where they are thinking about how to ease restrictions by stifling the first wave of the epidemic.
In Japan, the first coronavirus patient was first recorded in Hokkaido, during a snow festival famous for its ice sculptures. The woman came from Wuhan, some of whom became infected, a month later there were 66 patients in the province, at which time the governor decided on a state of emergency. Everything that happened a few weeks later happened across Europe, with the exception of Italy, where the first serious restrictions were already in place at the time: schools, restaurants, many businesses were closed.
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- Should there be a balance between infection and economic harm?
- When can the restriction period end?
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The numbers confirmed the move, the spread of the epidemic slowed down, dropping to single digits daily. Three weeks later, in the second half of March, when borders across the world were closed, including in Japan, Hokkaido was no longer afraid of the epidemic, but of the economic consequences of the restrictions imposed.
The tourism freeze has caused serious problems, as the economy in Hokkaido is based on farms and tourism. There has also been increasing pressure from companies to ease the restrictions. Since no one could come from abroad, the youngest governor on the island, Naomichi Suzuki, 39, elected last April, dared to do so on March 19. Beginning April 6, the gradual opening of schools also began.
A day later, covering various prefectures in Japan, Prime Minister Abe Sindzo introduced the state of emergency, which extended to all prefectures a week later.
At this time, however, the single-digit daily infection rate had also increased in Hokkaido, 150 by the time the restrictions were lifted, and 279 three weeks later, making the island again on April 14. it extended to a state of emergency throughout the state. Thus, the schools closed again, just a week after the relaxation, this time until May 6. The number of infections increased by another 200 in the next two weeks.
Therefore, the resolution was a failure, but at least it showed that it did not make much sense on its own if the island were free to enter from the most infected areas of the country.
Unfortunately, this is also an indication that the rapid restoration of the Schengen borders is a long way off.
However, Nagasze, who now regrets the relaxation of Hokkaido, has not leaked the lesson, so economic pressures could be stronger, fearing that after five million Hokkaido, the same will happen again in May in the 125 million countries.
In Japan, there are currently 13,965 confirmed infections across the country, 425 have died and 2,368 have recovered. However, we have written before that the most skeptical professionals, on the other hand, believe that they are not testing enough and therefore do not know how many problems are really happening. In any case, epidemiology experts are now warning: Even after the first wave of the epidemic has subsided, you cannot sit back and relax.
Tighten and loosen
Furthermore, even the first wave has not really settled: although the growth curve has flattened, the number of active cases has decreased only once, on April 29, so the number of patients at once is now 11,114.
Hokkaido’s experience shows the risks of lifting the restrictions that India has recently taken. Mitigation also started in Germany, and with it increased the number of infections.
These experiences were confirmed by the example of South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, which strictly managed the epidemic after the initial blows, where the number of infections also increased with relaxation, although they have not yet returned to restrictions.
It could easily be that, as in Hokkaido, they will be forced to take action elsewhere. According to Nagasze, the drag and drop function can continue until there is a vaccine or cure for the virus. Solving this is not enough, it is more likely only in 2021, but it must be produced in unprecedented quantities.
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