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Snapshot
If we want to summarize the territorial characteristics of the epidemiological processes in Hungary with a single table, the following table seems to be convenient. This snapshot shows that in our three counties (Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok, Baranya, Zala) the number of confirmed infections in the last 7 days is increasing at a rate of over 10% compared to the previous 7 days. In the other 3 counties, growth stopped roughly (Veszprém, Vas, Heves), and in virtually all other counties there was a decrease of more than 10%.
The snapshot above is definitely encouraging, but it’s also worth seeing what trends we’ve gotten so far. To do this, we also analyzed the time series in which direction and by what percentage the total number of cases of the last 7 days changed compared to the number of infection cases in the previous 7 days. This method captures the trend of the epidemic (based on official case numbers) and as our charts summarizing the following 10 to 10 counties (capitals) show:
In most of our counties, the epidemic has been calming down for a week or two.
However, there are some notable curves that show the exact opposite. It should be noted that the epidemic is rising sharply in Baranya County, the curve also indicates this in Zala County, and the downward trend in Veszprém Heves and Tolna counties is not convincing.
The epidemic is dramatically accelerating in two of our counties
The trends above obscure the rapid favorable epidemiological developments, possibly only a few days ago, so we also looked at the daily number of cases across all counties and the adjusted 7-day moving averages, as they also help to clear up the uncertainty. image indicated above. We have, for example, that in fact, “only” in our two counties, the epidemic is clearly accelerating (Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok, Baranya) and in the latter the operative strain reported a high peak of new daily infections on Saturday.
Counties flanking the stagnation
Thus, our study showed that we could reclassify Zala County (with some benevolence) among counties with epidemic stagnation, where Békés, Heves, Tolna and Veszprém counties are also found.
First signs of a declining / weakening epidemic
We were able to identify the first signs of a declining / weakening epidemic in nine of our counties: Csongrád-Csanád, Hajdú-Bihar, Nógrád, Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén, Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg, Bács-Kiskun, Somogy, Vas, Fejér. This is certainly an encouraging situation, since it is essentially about half of our counties.
Counties with a clear decline
Finally, in relation to 3 of our counties (Győr-Moson-Sopron, Pest, Komárom-Esztergom) and Budapest, a clearly weakened epidemic picture emerges before us, mainly on the basis of the 7-day moving average. In the past, we considered some of these counties to be epidemiological focal points, so this is also a positive development.
Cover image source: MTVA / Curator: László Róka. Budapest, April 4, 2020 Ambulance Ambulance and police patrol in Kőbánya, on the Kőrösi Csoma promenade.
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