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Symptoms in people infected with the British mutation usually appear within 4 to 6 days (if they occur), and it can take up to 2 weeks for a confirmed infected person to be included in the statistics. Thus, on the weekend before March 8, the effects of a “dispersed virus” have collided in recent days. We know that government epidemiologists hope that the data for the next few days will convincingly show that we will live our lives according to stricter rules from March 8 (closures of kindergartens, schools, shops), if the rules are strict enough, or if they are population, in fact, disciplined.
As the government has only extended the strictest restrictions for one week starting on March 22, it will have to say something in the next few days, so it will have to make a decision now in a delicate situation, because the epidemiological data available until the moment they don’t. show a convincing improvement:
- On the one hand, we see that the Hungarian Medical Chamber (MOK) in a dramatic announcement on Monday evening raised awareness of the extremely serious situation and called for an immediate tightening by the government, and then on Tuesday evening the MOK chairman called for a full two-week closures even tighter outside grocery stores and pharmacies contagion chains and alleviate extreme pressure on health. Incidentally, on Tuesday, information from the operative strain warned that the epidemic was sweeping Hungary with elemental force, and a highly contagious British mutation was found in 100% of the samples tested.
- On the other hand, we also see that the latest data on wastewater already indicates a stagnation, a decrease in the concentration of viruses. Also, in four counties where the epidemic had previously broken out, the increasing trend in the number of cases per day stopped. These are encouraging developments, but we would not say them convincing just yet, especially since, although much attention is being paid to them, the data on wastewater is unlikely to have a predictive role in the evolution of the epidemic curve in contrast to the official statement .
If the MOK has already proposed an immediate additional tightening, it is worth looking at what the index of government rigor in managing the epidemic shows in countries struggling with third wave challenges, or at home.
What do the country examples show?
In the UK, the rapid tightening since the beginning of December reached 88 points at the beginning of the new year (100 is the maximum), of which the first substantial easing was with the reopening of schools in early March, when more than 30% of the UK adult population was vaccinated for at least the first time.
The Irish also quickly embarked on the path of effective austerity, peaking at 88 points for the austerity index, and there was also a relaxation in early March, when daily case numbers remained convincingly low for weeks.
The Portuguese also hardened rapidly and significantly, so that in the first two months of the year their severity index was around 82 points, which slowed the epidemic quite a bit (the Portuguese index “bounced” between 76-86 points every few days from late January to mid-March, on average).
For Germans, a third wave has started in recent days and it was decided at a meeting in the early hours of Tuesday that, as their contagion figures had risen above a pre-announced limit, they would automatically adjust and run until the 18th. of April. Since the tightening index has dropped from 83 points, the indicator can now climb at least around it in a rules-based epidemic management system. In light of this, the loosening experience at the end of February is quite bitter.
However, we also see other epidemic management patterns in our region, such as Czechs and Slovaks. The Czech measures yesterday raised the level of the severity index to 76 points, so perhaps the current wave of epidemics will begin to moderate.
In Slovakia, the epidemic has been stagnant for almost two months, and now, in recent days, it may have started to decline there with a severity index of 71 points. The Czech and Slovak examples suggest that more flexible restrictive measures are more likely to prolong the suffering of the population by not stopping the epidemic quickly and convincingly, while the British, Irish and Portuguese examples indicate: with rapid and strong government austerity, the epidemic can be reduced more convincingly, while, of course, vaccination is also beginning to help with defense.
Here at home, the severity index of 72 points has risen to close to 80 points with the restrictions of March 8, and as we have seen before, it is in these days that it is decided whether the epidemic will start to improve or not. Due to the overcrowding of hospitals, a rapid upgrade would be badly needed as soon as possible. Based on previous international experience, we can say that
the current degree of rigor in Hungary is on the border, the countries were able to achieve really strong epidemiological corrections with greater restrictions.
Since last Friday, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán indicated in a radio interview that perceives that the population could no longer bear a greater epidemiological hardening, so there is an intermediate solution that is still conceivable in the coming weeks. This was also mentioned by the Prime Minister himself last Friday when he raised it: Easter is a “particularly risky date” because there are many contacts and therefore “they must be treated separately” from an epidemiological point of view. However, as can be seen, the population mobility that soared around Easter could quickly worsen the epidemiological situation.
A set of epidemiological rules for the Easter period, on the other hand, could help improve the emerging trends that are expected by then.
That is why we have produced schematic diagrams to illustrate the main conceivable epidemic trajectories for the next few weeks.
Illustration Scenarios
The following runs are illustrations only Depending on the possible epidemic situations, they show the expected result and the impact of a possible intervention. The three scenarios illustrate well the different importance of an intervention based on the assessment of the current epidemic situation. These possible developments will no doubt be discussed at the government meeting on Wednesday and next week, when the period around Easter will be agreed.
There are three things that can be revealed about the March 8 restrictions in the following days (something that understands the results):
1. Tight turn
The restrictions that are already in place (perhaps a little later than expected), but that deliver on their promise, will quickly ease the epidemic and thus the pressure on the healthcare system in the coming days. The load quickly returns below capacity and the epidemic recedes. In this scenario (hyperoptimistic), the introduction of additional restrictions would be of little use (see gray lines), because by the time they feel their effects, the epidemic will be tamed from the previous steps.
2. Insufficient first effect
The other extreme situation is when the steps of March 8 were so inadequate that they only bring a slight loss of momentum in the next few days, but the coronavirus continues to spread intensely. In this case, new measures should end the epidemic. This would not simply be a hyper-pessimistic scenario, but a particularly tragic one, as the epidemic would accelerate over the next few weeks, with new measures breaking a much higher peak. The healthcare system would be extremely overloaded even now.
3. Broad plateau
In the band (very wide) between the two extreme scenarios is the “broad plateau” scenario. In the following days, the spread of the epidemic stabilizes, even beginning to diminish slightly. At the same time, infections remain widespread, the burden on the healthcare system remains high and is only decreasing very slowly. The wide plateau prolongs the epidemic, with all its victims. In this case, a new package of austerity measures would not reduce the peak of the epidemic, but rather shorten the period during which the health system is overloaded.
We face two critical weeks: the opening could be even further away
As we have seen previously: it is essential that the country is two weeks ahead because In reality, it does not matter how the epidemic curve develops and what emerges from it in terms of the burden on health. At the moment, we only need to pay attention to the epidemic curve of new infections on a daily basis, because the vaccination process is not yet there to have a significant stopping effect in severe cases, in reducing the health burden.
In one of Tuesday’s videos, the prime minister spoke about plans to loosen the bolt that
Until all our compatriots registered for vaccination over the age of 65 have been vaccinated, we cannot start again because they are in imminent danger of death.
As shown in our last calculation, which includes the vaccination plan indicated on Tuesday: we now see 2.5 million vaccinated available for the days around April 14. We are three weeks away from that.
And in another video on Tuesday, the prime minister twice (!) Noted that The setting and specific content for the opening should be planned for next month. According to a wording
We have been working on the opening for a month, that is our business.
He then asked the family organizations to write what aspects should be considered in relation to the opening, “this would be the task for next month.”
All this suggests that this is not a real opening in Hungary in the near future and for that to happen: a basic condition is that at least 2.5 million (for the first time) have been vaccinated. Then until then one a system of protection measures prolonged in time and characteristic of the Czech and Polish countries This is best suited to the “broad plateau” scenario of our previous illustrations, under which the health care system would still be under persistently high pressure. However, to avoid this, according to the signal of the head of government last Friday Nor can it be ruled out that there are other epidemiological norms for the days around Easter..
Cover image source: Viktor Orbán’s Facebook page, photo posted on March 5, 2021.
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