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Multi-stage opening: we will hear new information tomorrow
In today’s Government Info, Gergely Gulyás indicated that the third wave of epidemics could peak at the end of March at the latest, as the vaccination process progresses, so we are only a few weeks away from taking the first step. to open up the economy, taking into account the results of today’s consultation. He indicated that Prime Minister Viktor Orbán would announce the framework of the opening strategy in his usual radio interview on Friday morning, for which he immediately said handrail, so we have a little more.
He literally said that “the government is thinking of a multi-stage reboot, even if today the data is not a reason to reboot and open.
We want, if objective numbers can be used to determine when we can open, we will relate the opening numbers to the degree of vaccination and then to the number of vaccinated.
Regarding the vaccine delivery schedule, he also said: “We hope that the full vaccination of the Hungarian population will be available in June, or even May.” This is exactly the same as one of the main conclusions of our analysis published this morning, which
WITH THE MODIFIED VACCINATION STRATEGY, THE ENTIRE ADULT POPULATION COULD BE SUSPENDED ONCE UP TO THE SECOND SEMESTER OF MAY.
Thus, the Minister’s words show that, with a certain level of vaccination, the government would gradually relax the restrictions, so that it would depend less and less on closures and more on the greater immunity of society to stop the epidemic. Of course, we do not know the expected schedule, but the graphic below provides a handrail, from which, according to Gulyás, it is probably We must first look at the circle of those who could theoretically be vaccinated (green line) and how this social circle develops with a delay of three weeks (orange line). This is because it takes 2-3 weeks after the first vaccine for most of the protection promised by vaccine manufacturers to develop in the body.
The graph above is theoretically describes the proportion of adults who can be vaccinated for the first time, but since we know that incoming vaccines cannot be vaccinated immediately (e.g. the NNK controls incoming shipments, the next weekly vaccination campaign needs to be organized), so what reality To illustrate, we add a delay of one week to the theoretical trajectory. The results obtained are presented in the following table to show when each vaccination limit could be reached for the first and second vaccination and when the protection promised by the vaccines could be developed. As you can see in our table: for example, a 50% vaccination could be achieved in the first vaccination before April 28, but if we also wait for the 3 weeks of protection when planning the opening, we are already talking about May 19.
Time horizon, benefits and risks of rule-based opening
The table above draws attention to the fact that we are really approaching the possible range of time to reopen the farm because many may be vaccinated in the next 4-6 weeks due to the abundance of vaccines. The government is also likely to take into account the fact that some time is needed for protection after the first vaccination, so not only the dates in the second but also in the third column are relevant when planning the opening.
Because the more contagious the currently infectious virus mutation, the greater the vaccination required to avoid a fourth wave after opening. Therefore Burgundy highlighted the range (40-70%) where it is already realistic for that the government (taking into account the size of the group that acquired immunity to infection) even consider an (almost) full opening. The vaccination levels marked in gray would provide rather partial relief. (And the 15-20% levels are not really due to the third wave being raging, at best they can be token measures to improve mood.)
It is important to note that an openness strategy based on vaccination can work if the third wave of the epidemic calms down and the pressure on the health system diminishes. In principle, there is a possibility of this happening, as experts expect the closings in early March to turn around by the end of the month at the latest.
The rule-based openness described today has two obvious advantages over managing epidemics with ad hoc decisions:
- It leads to more transparent, easier to communicate and more politically representative steps (for example, you don’t have to waste on 5-day opening promises to adjust).
- It includes an incentive built into itself, as a clear rule can make it clear to everyone that our willingness to vaccinate depends on our willingness to vaccinate.
However, regulation also carries risks. If the government does not adequately assess the impact of social immunity on the epidemic, the rules could become unrealistic. So it will be very interesting to see exactly what kind of relaxation plan Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is outlining tomorrow morning.
Cover image source: MTVA / Curator: László Róka. Budapest, December 26, 2014 View of Erzsébet Square in the evening light from the Basilica’s observation deck. In front of the Kempinski Hotel, on the right is the Sziget Eye, in the background is Gellert Hill with the Citadel and the Statue of Liberty.
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