Do you know when you will receive the coronavirus vaccine?

In the spirit of digital education, we start with a math problem:

Peter is a 32-year-old healthy and health-conscious young man who was one of the first to sign up for coronavirus vaccination. Depending on his vaccination plan and the availability of vaccines, calculate when Peter can be happy with his first vaccination!

Let’s also shoot the solution quickly – there is no clear solution to the problem. Its protagonist, Péter, is attentive to the news about vaccination, and it is possible that in the last month he has faced the following information in chronological order. Until the beginning of April (Easter) vaccination

• 2.4 million people registered so far will receive it,
• 2-2.5 million registered,
• 2 million registered,
• all registered seniors up to April will receive it (currently there are about 1.6 million registered over 60 years, it is not known how many of them have already been vaccinated).

Based on the early news, our Peter could be sure that he would be vaccinated in a few weeks. Then, as the days went by, he was first able to see that as the planned amount of vaccination decreased, so did his chances. Then, with the change in the vaccination plan, it is no longer included in the planned circle to vaccinate until Easter.

Before anyone gets it wrong, this is not a scandalous article that fears Peter’s interests. Determining the order of vaccination is a matter of professional choice and of value, in both respects the government has the right (and even the obligation) to decide. Our example draws attention to two oddities:

1. The vaccination schedule is not stable. It’s not even public, but what can be gleaned from it makes it clear that it is changing, dramatically redesigning the perspectives of individual citizens. In this sense, we ask the Coronavir Press Center: “In recent weeks, the information has been expressed in various ways about how many people and what groups we plan to vaccinate for Easter. What is now the official forecast, the vaccination plan for the beginning of April?” The substantive part of the answer (on Friday) was: “There are no changes in the vaccination schedule.” By comparison, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán made it clear this weekend that the vaccination plan had changed: “The operating tribe had to decide whether to vaccinate the elderly who were later registered or those who had previously registered and were younger. In the end, they decided to bring the elders with anticipation ”. In other words, the registration aspect indicated above was preceded by a risk-based consideration.
2. The vaccination schedule is inconsistent. It is not clear whether vaccination of the elderly or other risk groups is now always more important than the order of registration. If so, then ad absurdum Peter may be last in line for vaccination, as as a healthy young person many of those most at risk are able to prevent it, even on a day-to-day basis, as enrollment increases. .

Once again, the solution based on risk groups can be defended with solid arguments. Just because it is not known if this is really the case, or if it will not be otherwise in a few weeks, individual uncertainty will continue to increase.

In this sense, it is important to draw attention to the words of Professor Béla Merkely: herd immunity is an epidemiological concept. The fact that the epidemic is controlled with a high level of vaccination is “only” interesting for the lifting of community restrictions. Without a vaccine, a person can be sure that sooner or later they will contract the coronavirus. It may be in a week, it may be in a year, but you will go through the disease (at least once). So, when a level of vaccination sufficient for herd immunity is reached, the behavior of those who have not yet been vaccinated does not need to change radically. Although the risk of infection will be lower, they will surely contract the virus at some point without protection. Therefore, vaccination is of much greater importance at the individual level than at the community level, since all individuals can be released once full vaccination is achieved. That is why it would be important that if there were already many external aggravating factors (production capacity, procurement challenges, willingness to vaccinate), citizens had at least a clear vision of the vaccination regimen. For example, at least broadly speaking, they would know that what they are recording is not something of a vague future, but a certainty. Being willing to register could definitely help a lot.

For comparison, let’s imagine that Peter was unexpectedly offered the vaccine in late May. In a few weeks, before Peter’s eyes, the expected spring immunity passed into midsummer. And then I could say: I would have accepted any vaccine as spring protection, but during the summer hopefully virus-free period, I will not give up the right to choose. And in the fall, the vaccination campaign can start again.

Cover image: Getty Images