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Hungary ranks eleventh in the ranking of population vaccinations in the world (excluding mini-states with a population of a few tens of thousands). This ranking is especially unique, as we can outrun hundreds of countries, which means that the Hungarian vaccination program progresses much faster than the vaccination program of most countries in the world.
It seems like a huge success, but only in a relative sense.
According to the Financial Times database, 10.8 vaccines were administered per 100 inhabitants in Hungary on Friday night, thus achieving this prestigious location. This is a significant improvement over the situation three weeks ago, when only 4.2 vaccines were administered per capita, but if we look at the rate in the leading country, Israel, we immediately reinterpret our picture of success. In Israel, 93.2 vaccines are administered per 100 inhabitants, that is, almost all inhabitants receive a vaccine.
Most international databases project all vaccines administered per 100 inhabitants, including the first and second doses administered. So this does not mean individuals, since a person must receive two doses of the vaccines that are currently used, so there are many in Israel who have not even received their first vaccine. Therefore, the comparison is good for illustration only and is not suitable for estimating immunity.We do not see in the databases how many of the administered vaccines are the first dose and how many are the second. The time elapsed since the second vaccination is also unknown, although it is also important to estimate immunity.
Apart from Israel, the vaccination program is progressing very well including in the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, the United States and Serbia. By the way, several EU countries were in the top 15, and Chile was the only South American country on the list. Unsurprisingly, the top list includes mainly rich countries, with the exception of developing Morocco, Hungary and middle-income Lithuania, and the aforementioned Chile, as well as Turkey, which were in the top 15.
Of course, all administered vaccines are important, since vaccination is of great importance at the individual level, but On a social level, 11 vaccines per 100 inhabitants in Hungary are far from being enough to stop the epidemic in any way.. Unfortunately, you don’t even know that the number of cases in Hungary is growing at an unprecedented rate in Hungary, so the government had to impose strict restrictions.
Importantly, this does not mean that vaccines don’t work.
It is simply that so many people at home have not yet been vaccinated that it can slow the spread of the epidemic. Epidemiological mathematicians say this would require a vaccination rate of at least 60%, but if the mutants can spread faster and can infect even after inoculation, this rate can be higher (in Israel, by the way, high inoculation has spectacular results). Therefore, our current relative speed does not offer any practical advantage over other EU countries. – In the bloc countries, moreover, there are an average of 8 injections for every 100 people.
It is true that we are at the forefront of the EU and, as we have been vaccinated with Russian and Chinese vaccines, we will be the most vaccinated European country in a matter of days. This is due to the fact that the Hungarian government made a decision that other European countries (with very few exceptions) did not take: we order vaccines without a European license. No one in the EU has been vaccinated with Chinese and Russian vaccines at the same time, with the exception of us, only Slovakia has taken the Russian vaccine, and the Czech Republic is investigating the possibility of using the Russian vaccine, and Poland is flirting with the Chinese vaccine.
For this reason, it is natural that we will be at the top of the EU vaccination list very soon, but all the benefits are of no practical importance until we reach the required level for immunity.
In order to lift the restrictions, or at least stop the epidemic with vaccines, the vaccination rate must increase significantly, which is a matter of weeks and months. Our advantage over the EU will be of practical importance if we can overtake most European countries in weeks or months. Of course, it is very important to emphasize three things:
- There is no competition in vaccination, the favorable situation would be if as many countries as possible could vaccinate as many people as possible as soon as possible. The importance of this can be seen not only in terms of individual destinations, but also in terms of epidemiology and economics, the opening of Hungary could have a greater impact if neighboring countries could also open at the same time.
- It is true that the fastest Hungarian vaccination program against the EU is of no practical importance at the macro level, and each new vaccine is a significant advance at the micro level. For example, in terms of restrictions and spread of the epidemic, it does not mean anything to vaccinate 2 percentage points more people per population than the EU average, while saving thousands of lives with these vaccines (of course, the previous observation that not that we are faster than the EU, but the ideal situation would be that they would all be faster than they are now).
- And finally, a very important point: As long as vaccination is so low, our relative advantage is irrelevant, while other factors are very important. Although the epidemic spreads freely among 92% of the population, we are not going anywhere with our first place in the EU, because vaccination is not the number one means of protection in this situation. Until vaccination can be raised to around 20-30-40%, restrictions, the population’s attitude towards restrictions, and the quality of the government’s epidemiological management are crucial. – and we are currently not doing well in these areas compared to the European average.
Poor disadvantaged countries
Next, we will see how the most populous countries in the world cope with vaccines. THEIt is important to say that a large country is a disadvantage in terms of vaccination., since there are nominal limits to the vaccine production capacity, that is, they can produce a certain number of vaccines in a given time.
In small countries, the marginal benefit of a vaccine is much greater than in large countries; that is, even with a small number of vaccinations, a large proportion of the population can be vaccinated, while in large countries a relatively large number of vaccines can be vaccinated. it is not sufficient for immunity.
So it may be that there is so much vaccination in Israel’s 9 million: if the country, for example, had ten times as many inhabitants, they may no longer lead the international rankings. Many mini-states are also doing very well, but since they have a population of a few tens of thousands, we have not even included them in the lists above.
Still, however, there are large countries that are particularly good at vaccinating. Not surprisingly, the United States is so, which has developed two widely used vaccines. The greatest political and economic power understandably leads the rankings of the great countries. However, although China has two vaccines used in various countries, they are still not doing well in terms of population, and this is understandable for the reasons discussed above (the relationship between country size and vaccination).
It is also clear that there is a significant correlation between income level and vaccination globally. Looking at the vaccination coverage of India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Nigeria (which is very close to the developing world average), 8 vaccinated per 100 inhabitants in the EU can be considered a particularly good result.
Cover image: Getty Images
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