Závecz Research: Fidesz has lost half a million voters since August

Support for Fidesz fell a hair again, from 31 to 30 percent, and the combined support of the six cooperating opposition parties stood at 34 percent last month. Of these, the Democratic Coalition remains the strongest, with 11 percent support, the same as in November. The Jobbik and Momentum camps moved 6 to 7 percent year-round, the former at 7 percent and the latter at 6 percent this month. The MSZP has moved a little from the usual 5 percent this year, now at 6 percent. LMP and Dialogue are at 2 percent, as in previous months, and the two-tailed dog pair has now lined up at this level. Our country also attracts 1 percent this time. The nonpartisan proportion is 32 percent.

In the group of safe partisan voters, Fidesz has 45 percent, followed by DK with 19 percent. Momentum and Jobbik also compete closely with this engaged circle of voters, at 10-10 percent. The MSZP would get 7 percent in the group of active voters, the Two-Tailed Dog Party would get 3 percent this time, Nuestro País, LMP and Diálogo 2-2 percent. – These are the most interesting results of a survey conducted by the ZRI Závecz Research Institute in early December, on the days of the Szájer case outbreak, among the country’s adult population. In this measurement, the effects of this event are barely perceptible, and the experience of the last decades shows that unpleasant and scandalous cases that affect politicians arrive in weeks and can affect the general public.

Fidesz is on a slope, supported by 36 percent of the electorate in August, now 30 percent. The loss of the ruling party during this period is half a million voters.

The decline is particularly significant among graduates, where the proportion of Fidesz supporters has dropped from 46 percent to 27 percent. The party has also lost a lot since August in Budapest and the county seats: in the first group, the size of the polling station has decreased from 34% and in the second from 36% to 23%. Fidesz’s position has also weakened among young people under 30, here their support is now 22 percent instead of the previous 33.

If the Fidesz-KDNP list and the six opposition parties were presented to the electorate, both blocs could win new voters. In this case, support for the list of ruling parties would be 37 percent, thus activating 7 percent of the insecure (about 550,000 voters).

Supporters of the six opposition parties are increasingly embracing cooperation, and now nine-tenths of Jobbik voters, who have previously been relatively reluctant, would vote for the common list. Those rejecting the single list would bring the combined support from 34 percent to just 33 percent, while the opposition unit would move 8 percentage points (roughly 650,000 voters) from the insecure and some smaller parties.

Last month, the percentage of support for the opposition of six parties and the Fidesz-KDNP lists was 37 to 34, compared to 41 to 37 in December. Competition on the basis of who or who encourages a significant proportion of insecure voters to make a decision, and an alternative to the government or opposition is also relevant to them.

As supporters of the joint opposition list and Fidesz-KDNP are equally active this month, the opposition’s results are also higher among safe voters: 52% -48%.