Author:

Teen Victoria

In the summer, pro-government MPs issued a resolution instructing the Hungarian prime minister on the principles he had to represent in negotiations on the EU budget and the recovery fund. However, the compromise proposal does not meet all of its points.

Victory or defeat: In Hungarian politics, the budget agreement decided by the heads of state and government of the member states at the European Union summit starting today is evaluated in many ways. Reading the government’s specifically militant rhetoric, it is not difficult to imagine which party will serve as a triumph for the aired project. According to Viktor Orbán, for example, he spoke before the summit that they were very close to reaching a good agreement for the unity of the European Union.

“Today we fight not only for the victory of the union, but also for the victory of common sense,” he added.

By the way, it is already clear from the compromise proposal that concessions have been made to Hungarians and Poles who previously threatened to veto. It is reported that the system will not be applied until the Court of Justice of the European Union has ruled on the matter, and on the other hand, it can be specifically indicated in a clause that the rule of law mechanism will only be applied in the context of EU funds and not to other disputes.

It is not yet known whether the Heads of State or Government will accept the draft (this happened after the publication of our article – ed.), but it is an interesting fact that while a few days ago the Hungarian government was still fighting with its nails, Orbán was now willing to compromise (the agreement was interpreted by Gergely Gulyás as a fulfillment of the demands of Hungary and Poland).

However, this could put not only himself, but also the Hungarian Parliament in an awkward position, as pro-government MPs voted in a resolution in the summer on the principles that the head of government was called upon to respect. Although several months have passed since the vote, one of the reasons for the lengthy negotiations was the Hungarian veto, the voted parliamentary resolution has not been revoked since. In other words, if Orbán keeps his word, he must also take that into account in today’s negotiations.

In Government Info on Thursday, we asked Gergely Gulyás how the EU deal now on the table is in line with the parliamentary resolution adopted this summer. According to the minister in charge of the prime minister’s office, “in its entirety” since it was about not blackmailing the country.

“If the member states unanimously accept this, Hungary has no reason to veto the budget and the reconstruction fund,” he said.

But a study of the adopted text soon reveals that this is not the case at all. Although most of it has been adopted, the decision has two very crucial points that Viktor Orbán has not been able to achieve in recent months.

The points of the decision are as follows:

1. Member States in the same situation shall receive the same treatment.

This condition has not changed since the summer, when we first wrote about it, although defining the “same situation” has been difficult ever since. The EU Recovery Fund took into account the unemployment rate (2015-2019), the size of GDP and the size of the population. By 2023, they will analyze the GDP growth rate in 2020 and the total decline in GDP measured during 2020–2021. The seven-year budget (MFF) was also calculated on the basis of the economic development of the last seven years: this time, the committee gave priority to southern European countries emerging from the post-2008 crisis over, for example, our country, where unemployment fell to a very low level and economic growth soared.

2. Citizens of the richest Member States should not receive more support than citizens of the poorest countries.

We have also already reported that Viktor Orbán managed to increase the resources provided to Hungary by 3 billion euros compared to the plan. It is true that the next seven-year financial framework still does not give us as much as between 2014 and 2020.

Therefore, a total of HUF 14 billion can be received.

In principle, when allocating money, they do not look at the GDP per capita of a given country, but how much damage current and past crises are causing. Therefore, if a country has had outstanding growth, such as Hungary, it will receive relatively less than the worst performing countries.

3. The current one, called The “Article 7 Procedures” must be completed before the adoption of the Next Generation EU Instrument and the MFF.

This is the principle that Viktor Orbán failed to achieve despite Parliament’s resolution. Although German Chancellor Angela Merkel reportedly promised to do so earlier, Article 7 proceedings against Hungary are still ongoing. It is true that the German presidency did not move it forward and due to the coronavirus epidemic, it could not have addressed it too much if it had wanted to.

4. Political parties and organizations participating in political activities disguised as civilians will not be eligible for EU funding.

Not only did he join in the summer, he hasn’t joined since. Although the Hungarian prime minister is doing everything he can to complicate life for Hungarian NGOs, he has yet to convince the leaders of the EU member states.

5. Linking resources to political and ideological conditions, under the heading “Rule of law”, is unacceptable.

It seems that with the draft agreement that will be on the table tonight, even at the cost of compromises, the Hungarian Prime Minister has managed to deliver on this point. Furthermore, it is proposed that a passage be included, clarifying that this procedure can only be used in cases directly linked to resource mobilization, and cannot be used to criticize other cases (such as migration). In addition, such a procedure must be preceded by other procedures that involve problems with the system, such as an infringement procedure, which can last several years.

Furthermore, the Polish and Hungarian governments have argued that the legality of conditionality can be examined by the Court of Justice of the European Communities as a kind of preliminary check. This procedure also takes two years by default. Although it can be expedited by the defendant (the Council of Europe) or the plaintiff (the governments of Hungary and Poland), which can shorten the process to 4-6 months, there are strict conditions for this. That is, a new type of procedure is unlikely to begin before the 2022 elections. For Orban, this is a huge win in the domestic political arena and, since the agreement, it has not been accidentally declared superseded.

It would be difficult, at least not to interpret his statement today, in which, after last week’s full war message, he said: in times of epidemics, in times of economic trouble, to burden decisions with completely unreasonable political debates, because “we need help now.”



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We read what Orban negotiated



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