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According to the IDEA Institute, full opposition support among commissioned voters is already ahead of Fidesz.
His most recent survey was conducted by the IDEA Institute at the time of the so-called Szájer case. According to the representative survey, the scandal, at the time of its outbreak and at the time of the first reactions, had not yet shaken the Fideszto camp. Compared to the previous month, support for the ruling party within the total population did not change (32%), insignificantly for commissioned voters (from 48 to 47%). This was the level before the coronavirus epidemic, one month later than the total population. Currently, the proportion of those who do not take their partisan preferences and are not sure is 30 percent.
The most supported party in the opposition continues to be the Democratic coalition. It stands at 11% of the electorate and 17% of commissioned voters. THE Momentum movement and the best support for the general population remained at 7-7 percent, for safe voters the Momentum election did not change, for Jobbik it increased by 1 percentage point (10 and 9 percent, respectively). the MSZP his field is 5 percent of the total population, his support for commissioned voters increased by 1 percentage point (7%). the LMP, a Dialogue, a Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party It has a support of 2 percent for the entire population.
The conflict would defeat Fidesz
In recent weeks, it has become increasingly clear that the opposition alliance wants to participate in close cooperation in the 2022 parliamentary elections. Recently, the LMP stated that it not only cooperates with other opposition parties in the field of individual MPs. It also supports the establishment of a common list.
At the beginning of December 2020, the total support of the opposition parties that came from the alliance, if added mechanically, was 2 percentage points higher than that of the ruling parties (34 vs. 32%).
It was reiterated that irrevocable and well-founded conclusions cannot be drawn from the general support for the possibilities of a change of government. However, researchers say it is worth examining how voters from parties that have not yet officially lined up behind a common opposition list (Jobbik) or who presumably do not want to (MKKP) behave like a common list against. to your own list. in case of.
Although the question remains hypothetical, if Jobbik launched an independent list against the common opposition, it would lose a relative majority of its voters (49%), while 42% would support its own separate list. The vast majority of MKKP voters, 61 percent, support an independent list, while a quarter support a common opposition list.
Methodology
The IDEA Institute examined the data from November 30 to December 4 with a questionnaire based on social media. The result is representative of the adult population of the country in terms of gender, age, education and type of settlement. The margin of error for the 2000 sample is only ± 2.2 percentage points for the basic distributions.
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