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According to a viral genomic study by a larger Hungarian research group, the presence of coronavirus was detected in Hungary in late February and the first half of March, that is, the belief that the pathogen had spread in the country before was wrong. On the basis of the samples, it can be stated that in Hungary versions originating mainly from Italy were very widespread.
Coronavirus: the second wave, the second closure
Later than expected by many, but in mid-November, the Hungarian government also decided to try to curb the second wave of the coronavirus epidemic by introducing restrictions. At the time of the decision, 5,000 new infections had been identified per day and the number of deaths from the virus mostly ranged from 50 to 100 in 24 hours. The first step is a partial closure, but how effective it is is questionable. Follow our news!
With the participation of research institutes, clinics and specialists in Szeged, Pécs, Debrecen and Budapest, using hundreds of virus samples, the first large-scale scientific analysis of the coronavirus epidemics in Hungary was completed in 2020.
According to the researchers, the second wave of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Hungary is independent of the spring outbreak: the current epidemiological situation is not the continuation of latent and established chains of infection, but the result of reintroductions in mid-summer . According to the study, the virus variants currently forming the infection chains in Hungary are basically the same as the virus variants spreading in Europe.
The experts used the method used in international research to monitor the chain of infection transmission and natural changes in the virus. An important tool in the latter is viral genomics, in which the pathogen (genome) of the pathogen and its changes are analyzed. “Natural changes (mutations) in hereditary material play an important role in the viability and infectivity of the virus and, therefore, have (or can have) a decisive impact on the effectiveness of treatment and prevention strategies. Therefore, it is essential that we know and monitor the changes in the pathogen, ”says a summary of the study on Friday.
The study found that SARS-CoV-2 accumulates short-term mutations as the coronavirus spreads. The rate of genome modification is approximately 1 mutation every two weeks, which can be traced by genetic testing of pathogens detected in the body of the infected. Tracking mutations is an important part of the fight against coronavirus for two reasons, the researchers say:
- On the one hand, the temporal and spatial pattern of the mutations provides important information on the spread of the epidemic (the data can be used to estimate, for example, the geographic source of each focal point and the time of infection foci and the rate spread of the virus).
- On the other hand, the mutation pattern also gives an idea of the appearance and spread of genetic changes that affect the biological behavior of the pathogen. The study of the modifications of the virus can also be particularly important for the development of vaccines, since genetic variants can appear that make the virus resistant to the vaccine.
So far, the research team has genetically mapped some 270 domestic virus variants from the spring and fall virus waves. During the spring wave, 85 coronavirus samples were included in the study, and in the fall second wave, 188 coronavirus samples were included in the study. Based on the analyzes, it can be found out which variant of the Hungarian virus is most closely related to which other and whether their last common ancestor was already present in Hungary. For example, analysis of the 85 samples examined from the spring wave revealed that the infections introduced into Hungary came from a series of independent imports.
According to experts, the virus typically appeared in Hungary in late February and the first half of March, at a time when the first infections had hit their heads in Western Europe.
This statement also shows that the general public opinion that the virus has spread in Hungary before is wrong.
The researchers note.
Based on the evolutionary tree data, there was essentially no confirmed domestic spread of the virus before March, which is in line with other epidemiological data. “Of course, we cannot rule out with absolute certainty that there were no foci of infection in the country that could have appeared before, but that were not described only in the absence of a microbiological examination,” reads the text of the investigation. On the other hand, they add, it is almost certain that even if these sporadic cases did occur, they did not become dominant, that is, they did not spread in the spring wave.
An important finding of the research is that the variants of the virus that spread in Hungary in March are the same as those that spread in other European countries at that time. According to the researchers, since these variants were seen in Italy before,
We can say that the Italian versions were also spread in Hungary.
Examination of the 85 spring virus samples indicates that at least 6 independent infection chains (clades) were detected in the Hungarian population in the first phase of the epidemic. However, the clades that appeared in each county did not normally spread to another county, so the chains of infection from the first wave of epidemics remained localized. According to the researchers, it can be concluded from this that epidemiological measures were effective.
It is not a continuation of spring
It is also described that the current second wave of epidemics in Hungary was not created as a continuation of the chains of infection that formed and spread in the spring. After the border was opened, there were reintroductions into the country in mid-summer, they wrote. They also point out that the cases presented during July and August have developed “important chains of propagation.”
Differences between the first and second waves
The second wave of the virus differs from the first in several ways.
- For example, the propagation chains of wave 2 are much longer and last up to several months,
- each clade generally includes many more infected, and samples within a clade typically come from multiple counties: thus, while the first wave remained local, the second already has a nationwide clade, especially in the northeast region.
- The difference between spring and fall waves is also reflected in the fact that the fall virus variants are not predominantly the same as the spring spread variants.
According to the researchers, it can be deduced from this that the autumn epidemic in Hungary is already dominated by variants that developed in other European countries during the spring as “descendants of the first Italian infection lines”.
That is to say, the second national epidemic is most likely not the first resurgence.
You can read the full text and research results on the topic here.
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