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Scandals like that of Joseph Szájer can only hurt politicians in Brussels who have credit. However, Viktor Orbán has no credit, but strength in the negotiations on the veto, and it will be even easier to sell at home that Brussels is really capable of anything against Hungary.
Today’s youth in our fast-paced world rarely come to the conclusion that two seemingly related events are not connected to each other, they are just coincidences that are side by side, are true, and interact with each other. In fact, we have no idea that József Szájer The scandal and the veto of the European Union are in fact linked or simply affect each other.
The truth is that Hungary’s domestic politics have really shifted to Brussels in recent months. This could even be a huge success for the EU, as somewhere the goal has always been for the citizens of the Member States to really pay attention to EU policy. From another point of view, however, the ugly failure of the Hungarian opposition is that there has been no real political struggle inside Hungary for a long time, so they are also trying to fight internal political battles at the European level.
One of our two main events at the EU level could have been anticipated. We have already written that a hot autumn awaits Orbán in Brussels, because the EU fighting for Hungary is very congested in the heart of the EU.
Hard autumn awaits Orban in Brussels
It may seem superficial to the observer that by the summer of 2020 the fight between the Hungarian government and the EU leadership will be over. And it’s only beginning now. Three major conflicts may await the Prime Minister in Brussels.
The other, that the cartoonist of the “millennial Hungarian constitution” flees from the police with drugs in his bag, with incomplete clothes, with bloody hands from an illegal group sex party, we did not expect it.
We know the effect of the veto case on the József Szájer scandal. Szájer was perhaps the most important man of Fidesz in Brussels, he was already in the first battles with the parliament, and the quality of the annoyances shows that now they are Tamás Deutsch took over from him, as we have now reached agreement on the background of the open pose of the Gestapo.
In such a turbulent period in Hungary, it is difficult to think of anything else after the Szájer scandal other than that it is somehow a consequence of the veto. Still, it is worth thinking about something else, as it can easily just be a coincidence. Furthermore, if one sees politics not as a series of grand conspiracies but as a constant mix of paralysis, incompetence and coincidences, it is almost obligatory to think rather than
The effect of the veto on the Szájer affair is just that it necessarily comes to mind: perhaps the personal scandal came as a result of the veto.
On the contrary, the question is more interesting. A truly cinematic scandal like this would take away the credibility of many political forces. But that credit for Fidesz in the classical sense is no longer left in the European Union, and the rest has just been squandered to veto the bloc-wide seven-year budget and historic bailout package, simply not to account for any moral imperative. -Legal expectations regarding domestic policy. Towards Viktor Orbán It has no credit in Brussels, but it does have strength. His credibility is with politicians who use diplomatic solutions to achieve their goals, Fidesz is more of a believer in pure political power. Politicians and diplomats, on the other hand, are mostly gentlemen who laugh at the most,
By the way, Orbán can find it especially helpful to amass these two effects and soften the edge of the Szájer affair in Hungarian politics by saying that many people are terrified of the prospect of intelligence action. In this way, Fidesz can say – in fact, it has already begun to say so – that nothing is really sacred to Brussels. Of course, the Szájer case can only be useful to Fidesz in the veto debate, otherwise it is a political disaster.
The solution of the veto case is approaching regardless of the Szájer scandal. Angela Merkel He recently said that a compromise had to be made in the interests of Hungary and Poland, and the latter’s diplomats indicated that they were also willing to lift the veto in exchange for a compromise.
Merkel complained that those countries that would not be willing to rewrite a single letter in the draft rule of law mechanism for the good of Hungary at the same time demanded that there be some solution.
And now this is exactly the task of politics: to knead seemingly incompatible things into an outcome that everyone can live with.
Merkel said. Anyway, this is a typically German solution, as the entire state organization is about living in constant struggle and compromise with each other, but in the end everyone can live with what they have agreed to.
Not only is Angela Merkel the most senior and seasoned politician in Europe, but Germany also holds the rotating presidency of the EU, so there will almost certainly be a compromise. For several reasons:
- It’s loud in vain Mark Rutte and many MEPs, on the other hand, are rational figures who would not veto the budget for a slight compromise, as they had previously threatened.
- A deal would help Fidesz save face at home, and we know exactly from Merkel’s previous engagements that this is exactly one of the most important parts of a successful deal.
- To be sure, Orban can be affected by the Szájer scandal to the point that, after such international humiliation, he will no longer be able to say no to a reasonable offer.
Hungary has now been able to learn how powerless EU policy is: if something starts and gathers momentum, it will be very difficult to stop it. The rule of law mechanism is likely to work, with loopholes that Fidesz will be able to exploit, even if it is not beyond accountability.
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