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In August, Fidesz achieved the highest support rate in the legislature, at 36 percent of the total population. Since then, he has lost a little of his camp each month, 1 percentage point between October and November, according to a survey sent to the 24 ZRI Závecz Research Institute.
As a result, Fidesz remains the leader of the electoral population in the competition for the party’s support. The ruling party is currently 31 percent, but it was 34 percent in September. Fidesz-KDNP is followed by the Democratic Coalition, Ferenc Gyurcsány they reached 10 percent in the last quarter, now 11 percent.
The Momentum and Jobbik competition continues for third place, now with the same support, 7-7 percent. Camp Momentum has expanded minimally by 1 percentage point since October, Jobbik has not changed. The MSZP remains at 5 percent, and support for LMP and Dialogue has remained the same at 2-2 percent. Our Country and the Two-Tailed Dog Party had a 2 to 2 percent camp in October, now at 1 percent. The nonpartisan proportion is 32 percent.
In the group of safe partisan voters, Fidesz has 47 percent, followed by DK with 17 percent. The push is supported by 11 percent of pledged voters and Jobbik by 10 percent. The MSZP would receive 7 percent among active voters, Nuestro País, the LMP, the Two-Tailed Dog Party, and the Dialogue would receive 2 to 2 percent.
The result leans towards cooperation between six parties
Závecz’s research also reveals that
In the August poll, 39 percent of voters voted for the ruling party and 37 percent for the opposition. As then, as now the duel is fierce, the results this time lean towards the cooperation of six parties: 37 percent rank behind the opposition list, and 34 percent support the ruling party. Other party lists were also mentioned, a total of 2 percent, typically Our Homeland and Two-Tailed Dog Party.
The research also points out that a common list activates voters, with less uncertainty, passivity and stealth compared to the issue of multi-party preferences: 27% instead of 32.
As we’ve seen, Fidesz received 31 percent on the party preference list, reaching over 34 percent in this one-on-one competition. If we add the size of the field of the six opposition parties, we get 34 percent, but in a duel, 37 percent would give them their vote. So both political forces manage to attract more voters. Basically, new supporters come to the Fidesz-KDNP list from the insecure group, only sporadically, hardly noticeable from other parties.
As long as Fidesz voters fully support their party in a doubles competition, there will be dropouts in the opposition. 96% of DKs, 94-94% of Momentumers and Conversationalists, 92% of MSZPs, and 90% of LMPs also remain voters on the common list. For Jobbik fans, that rate is slightly less than 81 percent.
As supporters of the Fidesz-KDNP list are slightly more active than those of the common opposition list, the results are essentially the same among safe voters: the former stands at 49% and the latter at 50% .
The advantage of the common opposition list is felt mainly among those over 60 and the population of Budapest (43-32 and 45-35 percent, respectively). The substantial predominance of the Fidesz-KDNP list is among the group of vocational training and vocational school graduates and among those living in the village (39-31 and 37-27 percent, respectively).
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