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In two weeks, the epidemic will peak in Hungary with 178 deaths a day, according to the American epidemic model.
In December, more than two hundred people can die from the coronavirus in Hungary every day, according to an American epidemic model, it was estimated in early October, when predicted by the Institute for Health Measurement and Evaluation (IHME) of the University from Washington.
A research institute for modeling health trends, created with the support of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, will make its forecast regularly updated based on epidemiological measures in addition to statistics. Hu examined what the American epidemic model now predicts about the situation in Hungary in light of the new rules and data.
If we look at the most important indicator according to the Hungarian government, deaths from coronavirus, then according to the model, the epidemic will peak on December 8 and 9 with 178 victims a day, until then the number of deaths will increase continuously .
Since then, this graph has shown a somewhat improved trend, but only after January 11 did the number of daily deaths fall below one hundred, and even at the end of February 56 victims per day are expected.
According to current forecasts, 9.2 thousand will die from the virus by the end of the year and 14,000 by the end of February. According to government information, the epidemic has left 4,008 victims to date.
Despite the expected increase in deaths, the spread of the infection is already slowing according to a model that attempts to estimate the number of actual new infections in addition to officially registered cases. According to this, the number of new infections could have peaked on November 22 with 29.5 thousand new cases, but since then this curve is already falling. Assuming the current restrictive measures remain in effect, 14,000 actual new infections can be calculated daily in early January and 6.5,000 at the end of February, writes 24.hu.
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