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The Hungarian government is preparing for the debate on the rule of law in the European Council with several possible scenarios, so that the next seven-year budget and recovery resources can be opened to Hungary, the payment can start next year, but sanctions will be lifted. Napi.hu has learned about various possible strategies that can be represented by the Hungarian leadership and can also be applied to other member states. For some, there are already signals in government communications, but there may still be surprises.
It can also be communicated well to say from Brussels that we are a dictatorship, because it can be shown that history has tried to crush us from Vienna and Moscow, and an even better message is that “I see, the rule of law and even the liberal Europeans say there is also democracy “
– With this upheaval, he began to explain to our government politician that the current debate on the rule of law, on which the EU budget for 2021-27 and the amounts of the additional recovery fund would be paid on paper. However, several EU countries, mainly large taxpayers such as Germany and France, as well as Finland, Denmark and the Netherlands among the contracting countries, would change EU support policies, citing joint loans, but would condition the spending of the norm to the rule of law in recent years.
As is well known, the governments of Hungary and Poland find this unacceptable. However, it should be noted that although the European Parliament, the Commission and the Council have so far jointly mentioned the forthcoming seven-year budget (MFF) and the rule of law mechanism, they are two separate pieces of legislation, which they are not linked from a legal point of view. The aim would have been for the leaders of the Member States to vote on this legislation in a package. But that is precisely why, given that the decision on the MFF must be taken unanimously by the leaders of the Member States in the European Council, the threat of veto of Prime Ministers Viktor Orbán and Mateusz Morawiecki would block everything.
The toughness of the Hungarian and Polish prime ministers is the main source of tension, because the package to be voted on even includes a coronavirus disaster recovery (FRR) fund, which would provide immediate resources in the form of grants and very concessional loans. . ) to the Member States most affected by the epidemic, which are mainly the southern states (Spain, Portugal, Italy), and would be in great need of this support. (Hungary could receive around € 16 billion from the RRF if it participates – ed.)
Referring to EU officials in a Tuesday article in the Politico, he wrote that everyone knows that the negotiations have reached a dead end with the veto of the two heads of government and will not be able to accept the budget and the loan package until that the problem is somehow resolved. So they expect Hungary to reveal their pages, otherwise, as one bureaucrat put it, they are on “big shit”.
There is a wild card in the deck: migration.
That is why our newspaper contacted various people and politicians who are preparing analyzes for the Hungarian government, in order to get an idea of which letters are in the hands of the Hungarian government. Several strategies have been presented to us, including a seemingly unlikely legal turn, as well as a seemingly logical scenario. Below we have summarized those that at least three have presented to us in some way, or have confirmed that they have heard of such an idea, or that this direction is already visible in government policy and communication.
However, we would add that none of them knew the final strategy, but we were presented with the possibilities and proposals presented, from which it can be outlined during the negotiations what room for maneuver Viktor Orbán will have in the EU. They all said that the situation seemed as if two outcomes were possible (either the rule of law was removed or the Hungarian government allowed it), but in reality there was plenty of room for the parties to compromise.
“The circumvention of the rule of law is not worth counting on,” said a background person who said the Hungarian government really could not count on this possibility. Referring to various examples from the recent period, he said that in the recent period, Fidesz leaders have also managed to change a word in various EU documents, making the wording more vague or more peaceful. In the case of the Preparatory Document for the EU-AU Summit, for example, Hungary has communicated with two other V4 countries that, instead of “gender equality”, the text should include “promoting women’s self-determination”, according to Eastern Member States do not like the term gender (as social gender).
Our source mentioned the first round of budget discussions in July, where the Hungarian-Polish tandem reached the point where the final text of the document on the rule of law included so much that the European Council “emphasizes the importance of respecting the rule of law” . Now the government would make a condition that this passage be further weakened and that the clause be specifically included in the use of resources.
“The text could state that EU support and loans can only be used in accordance with the rule of law,” he concluded. In practice, this would mean that, specifically in the case of the Brussels references, this would appear as an element in the funding targets, as it would be difficult to use EU money for tasks in the opposite direction.
A migration card is always useful
“It is also easy to sell if the exclusion of mass migration is included in the text. This is an important political and communicative issue for the government, so if the subsidies include that they cannot be linked to such an expectation, we can speak of victory “he added. a finer version than the previous one. Since asylum has also become a sensitive issue in many Western European countries, our sources say they can easily accept this compromise.
Several of our sources have cited the location of the immigration passport as one of the most likely addresses. After our in-depth conversations at the beginning of the week, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán himself, the main Fidesz politicians, and the narrative of the fight against migration appeared in several articles in the pro-government media as a reason for the budget debate.
Anyone who protects its borders and protects their country from migration can no longer be considered a state governed by the rule of law in Brussels. And once the current proposal is adopted, there will be no obstacle to tying money to Member States to support immigration and blackmailing countries that oppose migration with budgetary means.
the prime minister said on Wednesday, which fits the supposed logic outlined above.
“It will be possible to debate for years what the rule of law is”
According to a politician speaking on our portal, the leaders of the European Union themselves and the Member States that exert pressure do not know what it means, how the rule of law can be regulated. There are still processes to control this, but they are inefficient, slow and ineffective, and they point to a procedure that he has claimed for years without a significant result, which he has described as unjustified.
It is still stated in the text that the European Commission will be able to draw conclusions on this issue, enumerate the instruments, if the mechanism of the rule of law is refined, list some values that must be protected, but not define the rule of law itself. It is an easy way for the Hungarian government, at least according to our source, to seize the lack of a specific definition in the document regulating the distribution of funds and request a separate regulation to be done later, clarifying this and establishing the procedure accurately.
“The goats also live well, the cabbage remains. Member States that require the mechanism will receive the clause until it can be applied until it is resolved. And Brussels is very slow,” said our source, why such a proposal was received and why what could go away this is passed on to other leaders of the Member States. He also explained that by the time the regulation on the criteria of the rule of law was in order, everything would become uninteresting, the process could begin with debates that would last for months, which, in his opinion, the “policy of struggle for freedom” of the Hungarian government has always handled it well. “.
The existence of this scenario has been confirmed by several of our sources, but in general all have added that this “trick can be combined with few possibilities”, who have added that it is necessary to look for allies outside the Poles, and it will not be enough to the Slovenians or the Czechs would be behind the proposal, one of the large Member States should also be a partner willing to compromise. Nor would the veto of the European Parliament be ruled out if, on paper, the text were modified in such a way as to significantly increase the tightening, but at the same time paralyze the entire mechanism.
However, there are signs of this strategy: Justice Minister Judit Varga has repeatedly said that no one could reasonably expect Hungarian leaders to support the proposal on the agenda: the rule of law system is artificial, the scrutiny procedure lacks objectivity substantive. Guarantee. And he told FAZ that “Hungary supports a mechanism based on equality and dialogue between member states that takes into account the respective constitutions.”
Bruxinfo also wrote, citing Brussels sources, about a similar proposal: it is said that the European Commission may also be willing to attach an interpretative statement to the legislation. It is more than questionable that the body can give any guarantee to Budapest and Warsaw beyond strengthening objectivity and impartiality, but if the two states are willing to do it, they can all do it well.
However, Judit Varga also made a statement to the contrary that the government was not willing to compromise.
If true toughness comes, it will be a back face
Not everyone knew our sources, but many people also know the idea that the Hungarian-Polish tandem will veto him in the first round. In this case, it can be expected that, if there is a will to compromise, the summit will be delayed, but we will not have to wait any more weeks for a new conciliation, but the European parties will soon be able to return to the negotiating table. Therefore, they could even extort concessions if the Germans wanted to carry the proposals anyway.
Anyway, a special deal with Merkel-Orbán is expected in Brussels: Bruxinfo has also heard of such a scenario. However, according to our sources, it is against this that the Dutch head of government, Mark Rutte, or the French head of state, Emmanuel Macron, would intervene for a relief dictated by Berlin. They would not even stop the rule of law procedure against Hungary until the 2022 elections in Hungary. Rutte has also spoken openly about being able to imagine an EU without Hungarians or Poles.
According to some of the background people who spoke with our newspaper, “you have to win at home with communication,” that is, with the first round of vetoes and then with the second round of support, or with a proposal that has already been accepted by the government. And if the process started, it would start before the Court of Justice of the European Union or the Commission, and it would be possible to prepare for similar debates over several years as in infringement proceedings.
As we have written, it is not known which of these strategies Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has adopted, but it appears that the head of government does not defend EU leaders without ideas, and there may even be a long debate. But we also had a source who said he was sure other countries would back down before Hungary, and that was considered a basic scenario in government.
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