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There is a lot of money, including the EU budget for 2021-27 and a € 1.82 billion epidemic recovery fund, in Brussels this week. This is why foreign echoes also reflect an extremely high mood; not only the internal opposition mentions treason, theft and historical sin after the government of Viktor Orbán on Monday to veto the EU budget, so it wants to link the much-mentioned rule of law to the budget.
Everybody knows that we are at a standstill. We have come to a crossroads and no one knows where it will lead us. All we know is that the full package (on budget) cannot be accepted until we have the Hungarians on our side.
– Politico told the Brussels news portal a senior EU official, adding that
We will continue the consultations, but at some point the Hungarians will have to lay their cards on the table. Otherwise, we are in big trouble.
An EU diplomat who also took part in the talks in Brussels yesterday, but who also asked for his name and nationality to be hidden, gave the Index the following image. Yesterday, the rotating EU presidency asked member states for political resolutions on three issues, testing the Hungarians’ determination to veto even the entire EU budget. As it turned out, they were very determined, and even the Poles supported them.
However, yesterday neither legislation was passed nor rejected in Brussels. For the moment, the threat of a veto from Hungary is like a letter of intent in the face of a real deal.
Justice Minister Judit Varga told the Index on Monday night that the rule of law mechanism is being used as an extortion tool against Hungary, which is why they are so determined.
Our diplomatic source said that the EU presidency on Monday called for a political resolution on three laws. These:
- the so-called conditionality regulation, which would condition EU money to the rule of law, that is, the much-criticized Hungary and Poland could be withdrawn on this basis. This regulation was rejected by the EU ambassadors of the two countries, but no legal decision has been made. This may be EU legislation tomorrow at the earliest, and a consensus is not necessary, so the representatives from Budapest and Warsaw can simply be rejected.
- the regulation on the multiannual framework budget (MFF) (which is even implemented in the European Parliament). Hungary did not accept it either, in order to maintain its leeway to reject the rule of law. Here there is already more room for maneuver: Member States can approve the EU budget unanimously.
- a decision on own resources that clarifies the income of the EU, which is necessary for the indebtedness of the Union.
Photo: Thierry Monasse / Getty Images Hungary
What will happen now?
Still not known. This is the essence of today’s nerve game. Our source is not expecting a breakthrough in today’s EU ministers meeting, in which Hungary is represented by Judit Varga, and even the EU summit to be held in a video conference on Thursday may not be.
In any case, not only will the EU mills grind in the next few weeks, but there is a feverish agreement between the Member States, even at the highest level. In Brussels, they know that the phone lines on between the capitals are that
A COMMITMENT IS NECESSARY BECAUSE THE CRISIS IS OF NO INTEREST TO ANYONE.
- COMMITMENT BECAUSE THE CRISIS IS OF NO INTEREST. CRISIS HAS NO INTEREST TO ANYONE.
Not only because:
- Hungary and Poland also expect billions of euros of EU funds. It would be very difficult to explain at home that payments in Brussels will be delayed because of your defiance.
- Southern Member States in particular, including Italy and Spain, are already counting heavily on recovery fund payments as of January 2021. If Budapest and Warsaw face them (and also the Portuguese and Greeks), only it will tune the new member states against themselves and become increasingly isolated.
Press coverage Tuesday morning from the main EU member states shows that they are trying to soften how far Viktor Orbán will go in the end.
According to this morning’s newsletter from Der Spiegel Hamburg News Magazine, “this is a transparent blackmail attempt that is unlikely to last long.” That is, not because it is precisely because our country and the Poles would lose their own money with a veto.
According to Le Monde in Paris, on the other hand, “some thought they were bragging (ie Hungarians and Poles – ed.), Others took them seriously. The latter were right. “
If not now, in weeks, if not in days.
(Cover Image: Anadolu Agency / Getty Images Hungary)
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