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The secret history of the 2018 elections in 84 color pages.
I’ll buy it
“We’re in big shit,” European bureaucrats, diplomats and experts commented on Monday that the Hungarian and Polish governments were blocking the adoption of the EU budget for the next seven years, along with the huge stimulus package it contained. The two countries have vetoed because the payments would be conditional on the rule of law from next year, here we have written how the debate has degenerated and here is the reason why the mechanism itself is there.
According to the first statements, the stagnation seems complete:
- Budapest and Warsaw will not allow the EU to start distributing hard-to-negotiate stimulus money, it will even hand over its own money, but there will be no rule of law mechanism.
- However, most Western countries and the vast majority of the European Parliament will not allow the new budget to start without the mechanism.
- All actors have the right to veto.
Disconnect the new budget mechanism
On Tuesday morning, an idea emerged that some had only talked about in the background until then. Among others, István Ujhelyi, a Socialist MEP, brought it up and writes about it He is also an EU expert, and we spoke with lawyers who work for the EP, who confirmed that, in principle, the idea could even work.
They assume that the rule of law mechanism can be adopted without Poland and Hungary. The European Parliament is expected to vote on it next week, after which the ministers responsible for EU affairs will vote in the General Affairs Council and, if approved, it will take effect on January 1.
On Monday, the ambassadors of the member states already carried out a test vote, which passed without problems with a qualified majority, which means that if European governments do not change their mind in the coming days, the mechanism can be armed. And if it can be put together, it should apply to all payments from the beginning of next year, the argument continues.
In practice, this would mean that if there is no new budget due to the Polish and Hungarian vetoes, the EU will continue to operate on the basis of this year’s payments, extending the financial cycle that expires this year. That is, how much money came to cohesion this year, to agricultural support, to anything, without so many new budgets next year.
But by then there will be a rule of law mechanism, and if the European Commission sees that democracy is being damaged in one member state, and a qualified majority of the other countries agree, this money could also be taken away from renouncing governments.
Perhaps only from those who vetoed the budget and the rescue package. Such political revenge would be far from elegant, but the Commission already has ammunition to detect violations of the rule of law in Hungary and Poland, and most Member States are clearly angry at the two governments for the veto as it costs them too much to delay .
Until now, the rule of law mechanism has always been linked to the budget, including the European Commission, the first version of the legislation, the Parliament and the Council, but this was mainly for political reasons. Thus, it was announced that new rules would arrive in the new financial cycle. However, from a legal point of view, the budget and the mechanism are not strictly linked, in fact, they are two separate pieces of legislation.
However, there are also doubtful voices in Brussels. We also spoke with an expert who said that it was not clear that the new mechanism could actually apply to payments decided under the old order, because that would raise the problem of ex post legislation. Skeptics say the Hungarian and Polish governments could challenge the old spending rules in EU court if the end of such a lawsuit were to come, and it is unclear what the end of such a lawsuit would be and the EU institutions would be in on it. a very uncomfortable position if the rule of law would be tried to be illegally enforced.
Officially, only an agreement will come
At the same time, the idea is spreading rapidly, more and more people are thinking about its feasibility. However, not yet officially mentioned, the Council’s response to the dilemma is to persuade the Hungarian and Polish governments to be more flexible.
The talks so far have been unsuccessful, but EU ministers will hold a video conference on Tuesday, and prime ministers on Thursday will try to persuade the two resistant governments in both forums.
However, most experts expect real breakthrough only from the summit in Brussels, which starts on December 10, where it can be negotiated in person, even in small group retreats, if you can keep the meeting due to the virus. .
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