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Although the ceasefire that ended the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan was mediated by Moscow, this success, in fact, exposes the weakness of the Russian regime, which is marked by the name of President Vladimir Putin.
Does the Russian-mediated ceasefire between Azerbaijan and Armenia mean victory for Moscow? asks Professor Mark Galeotti, an expert on the former Soviet Union. If the answer were yes, there would be no doubt for its poets, because a ceasefire that would end, or at least suspend, the six-week war would obviously be a success for the Russian leadership, which has repeatedly asked the parties to end to war, but so far in vain.
The agreement practically maintains the territorial gains that the Azerbaijani army has made in recent weeks. The Armenians had to withdraw from the area around Nagorno-Karabakh and from the strategically important region of Lacin, through which the isolated highway between the Armenians inhabited by Armenians and Armenia leads. The so-called lacini corridor, which functions as an umbilical cord, remains open. This is guaranteed by almost two thousand Russian blue helmets.
In the country of the vortex, there was great dissatisfaction with the news, as it practically registered the situation after the military defeat, while the Azerbaijani president, Ihlam Aliyev, could rightly proclaim to the world that the Armenians had capitulated to the Azerbaijani forces . But what has all this brought to Moscow, which for centuries has viewed this Caucasus region as an area of interest?
It gets more and more uncomfortable
The instability and apparent reluctance of the Kremlin to resolve the conflict became increasingly embarrassing over the weeks. Especially since Armenia has been attacked on its own territory and is a member of a Russian-led military alliance designed to ensure its security.
Even more embarrassing, however, was Turkey, citing the Muslim community, providing significant support to Azerbaijan, providing drones, deploying F-16 fighter jets at Azerbaijan’s Ganja airport to prevent the Armenian Air Force from fighting, and, according to unconfirmed news, in Syria. he also sent trained mercenaries to his ally. In doing so, it posed a clear challenge to Russian regional hegemony.
Moscow: refugees have returned to the crisis zone
Nineteen buses carrying returning refugees were escorted by Russian units along the Lacsin corridor connecting Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Sunday, an MTI correspondent wrote. 475 people and 250 people in nine buses returned to the Armenian-majority area in Azerbaijan on Saturday. The outpost of the Humanitarian Response Center of the Russian Armed Forces began operations on Saturday.
Russian peacekeepers said the ministry said on Sunday it had established 25 ceasefire monitoring posts in Nagorno-Karabakh and another seven temporary observation posts along the Lacsin River. According to the portfolio, the ceasefire will be observed by the opposing parties along the entire line of demarcation.
Under the coordination of the Russian peacekeeping forces, the International Committee of the Red Cross and civil defense in Nagorno-Karabakh, the exchange of corpses of the fallen between the Armenian and Azerbaijani armed forces continued. On Tuesday, at 0 am Moscow time, a ceasefire was held in Nagorno-Karabakh, following a joint statement by the presidents of Russia and Azerbaijan and the Armenian prime minister.
According to the agreement, the Armenian armed forces must return territories to Azerbaijan in several stages. Under the tripartite agreement, Armenian soldiers and residents should have left the Kelbajari region, which borders Nagorno-Karabakh, before Sunday, but Baku, at the request of an Armenian mediated by Russia on request, citing the logistical difficulties of leaving, He had given them a ten day delay. According to the Azerbaijani party, the Armenians are scheduled to leave the Agdam region before November 20 and Lacsini on December 1.
A defeat that looks like a victory
After all, what has Russia, which on paper is the hegemonic power in the region, achieved? Armenia, which based its security on the Russian alliance, was forced to accept defeat. Some say Putin’s goal was to undermine the position of the “liberal” leadership in Yerevan, but for Armenians it is a national matter in Nagorno-Karabakh that there is no politician or political force currently seeing Armenian defenders in Russia.
Azerbaijan won, which was recognized by the Russians with the ceasefire that left the Azerbaijani troops in their positions. In reality, however, Turkey has achieved real success in gaining significant influence in the region. Aliyev spoke of Putin in a neutral voice when he announced a ceasefire, while thanking his “brother”, Recep Tayyip Erdoga, with warm words.
Decrease
Russia may play a peacekeeping role between the two countries in the future, but this will impose an unplanned additional cost on the Russian army’s budget and it must intervene more deeply in local affairs without strengthening its regional power, but only trying to avoid its weakening. The thing is reminiscent of Central Asia, where China is pushing Russia back, relying on its enormous economic power.
According to a writer of a Moscow Times article, what we see on Putin’s side is not a definite diplomatic maneuver or the exercise of hegemonic influence by a trusting power. We see the management of the decline, the Russian leadership reluctant to infiltrate the Azerbaijani conflict, trying to avoid harm, but disappointing its allies and not dissuading its opponents from moving forward. At least the guns are silent, it’s a question of how long.
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