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In Moscow, some officials had a bad day announcing that Joe Biden would be the new president of the United States because his job was to help re-elect Donald Trump by manipulating social media. However, if we look below the surface, we see that the change of government is not so bad from the Russian point of view.
The administrative apparatus of the Russian government, especially the cyber division of the secret service, has been working diligently in recent months to help elect Donaldt Trump as president in 2020 after 2016 by manipulating American social media. The benefits of this are well known from a Russian perspective: The Trump administration has weakened the US federal system and ruined America’s image, making it attractive to the world. Who wouldn’t be happy about this in the Kremlin? Therefore, the election of Joe Biden is at first sight a defeat for the Russian government. However, this is worth looking at a little more closely, writes Steven Pifer, an American political scientist and expert on international affairs, in an article published in the Moscow Times. According to him, the Biden presidency is more good than bad for the Russian leadership, which is supported by various arguments.
Predictability
The first is predictability. In recent years, practitioners of few professions have had more difficulties in Moscow than American observers, who have had to interpret and explain President Trump’s policy towards Russia to President Vladimir Putin or Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Trump did not criticize the Russian leadership for its autocratic behavior and violence, and spoke of a good relationship between him and Putin.
Meanwhile, the US government has imposed sanctions on Russian natural and legal persons, sold deadly weapons to Ukraine, and reinforced the US military presence in a part of central and eastern Europe close to Russia. After Biden takes office, the president’s behavior and management policy will be in sync. The Kremlin may not like this any more, but at least it will be clear what the other side wants.
Pros with pros
Second, under Biden, the professionals will return, international games will be played according to the rules of this new profession, whether it is about reconciling interests or conflicts of interest. Biden knows that even if the relationship between the parties is at a low point, stopping the dialogue is not recommended. Trump did not have many opportunities to learn the details of Russian-American relations and wasted no time to make up for his lack of knowledge. The Putin-Trump meetings did not contribute anything to the parties other than media disclosure.
Third, the president-elect wants to keep Russian-American relations within safe limits, which he began by making it clear that he is ready to renew the arms control agreement without preconditions. This would mean that the parties would respect the prescribed limits in the field of nuclear weapons and would exchange information on an ongoing basis to ensure transparency of control. This is for the safety of both countries.
Furthermore, the Biden administration can go further, for example by being open to regular military dialogue, which is especially important when units from the two armies come dangerously close to each other. Neither party has an interest in some kind of random collision simply because someone is wrong, triggering an unwanted conflict.
Patience
Another advantage of Biden over Trump from a Russian perspective is that he is aware of the need for patience for diplomatic success. Trump wanted immediate results that would show up well alongside his name in the media. He did not have the patience to give him time to work out the details of complex contentious issues. The new administration can advance in the settlement of relations between Ukraine and Russia, which is the main obstacle to relaxing relations between Russia and the West. The Russians control Donbast, that is, southeastern Ukraine, so without them there is no solution. Trump was unable to step forward in this area.
The Kremlin may be upset that Biden says Russia is the biggest threat to the United States, but the author of the Moscow Times article says it’s really just a statement of fact. Russia is the only state in the world capable of physically destroying America and has worked hard in recent years to undermine America’s influence in the world. Faced with this looming threat, Biden sees China’s strengthening as a long-term challenge for his country.
The rise of a new American administration does not mean that relations between the two countries will be reset with a reset button. At the same time, if the Putin regime is willing to show some restraint in Russian manipulation of American social media, for example, it may find a ready partner for dialogue in Biden and his government.
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