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The secret history of the 2018 elections in 84 color pages.
I’ll buy it
The aggregation of votes in the six states where no winner has been announced in the presidential elections is proceeding at a slow pace. Of the six, Alaska is not that worth seeing, there would be an orbital surprise from Trump’s defeat. In the other five, in principle, any candidate can win.
Take Arizona, for example, if only because we have some heels on this. On Wednesday night, based on the distribution of votes received so far, Joe Biden’s victory seemed certain enough to judge him by the 11 electoral votes of the state. Sorry, it is not a large American television company, nor the AP news agency and The Guardian that have evaluated the results there. I was forced to remove this at dawn on Thursday. After processing 86 percent of the votes, Joe Biden’s lead dropped to 79,000 votes, and if Donald Trump gets 58 percent of the 515,000 votes that have yet to be added, he could even flip it. This is a completely realistic option.
The news from Arizona is offset by the fact that after several turns in Georgia, Biden’s victory seemed completely unlikely in the early hours of Hungarian time, and then at nine in the morning I think Biden can win. easily a democratic victory there in the afternoon. it has reduced its disadvantage by just 40,000 votes and, to reverse it, it only needs 65 percent of the votes not yet added. The fact that they typically only count votes per letter, and that favors Biden in the first place, as well, in counties where Biden has received more than 70 percent of the votes so far.
A victory in Georgia would more than make up for the loss of Bident Arizona, as Georgia’s 16 electoral votes are an even greater prize than Arizona’s 11 electoral votes.
In Nevada, Biden’s lead is currently minimal, at 7,600 votes, but there are even counties where the Democratic nominee leads at a higher rate than the state’s overall result.
While in Pennsylvania Donald Trump’s lead is still 190,000 votes, it was nearly 700,000, and there are still plenty of a million votes per letter, most of the counties where Biden leads handsomely, with an advantage of up to 60 points in some places.
Finally, there is North Carolina, where Trump currently leads with 77,000 votes, but where 117,000 votes on the letter have yet to be processed. So Biden has a theoretical chance to translate here as well, although he would have to get 82 percent of the votes not yet added for that.
What does this mean in general?
Joe Biden already has 253 votes for sure. He is very likely to win in Nevada, but the state’s 6 electoral votes are still too few to win the presidency. To do so, you would have to win in at least one of the four states of Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Arizona. Trump has more difficulties. You should win in all four states to win.
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