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It is easier to understand the situation if we do not start from the voters already obtained by the two candidates, but conditionally give the state that does not yet have a final result to which it belongs on the basis of the current partial results. Based on this, Joe Biden would have 271 voters and Donald Trump 267 seats, which means that the Democrat would win the challenge. Therefore, rule number one is:
In order for Tump to still have a chance, he has to change the job somewhere. Such a state would suffice.
This can happen in two places, In arizona Y In nevada. Arizonat It has already been handed over to Biden by many insiders (also shown on maps as a typically tilted state, see above) and the situation hasn’t gotten that far. With 84% processing, Democrats lead with 51.0% -47.6%, so there would be plenty of room to translate mathematically. In that case, Trump would need to get at least 60% of the votes not yet counted. There are two ways of thinking if you have the opportunity to do this.
- What pattern do other states show? Unfortunately, this is not really indicative, as Trump’s lead has increased in the southern states as the prosecution progressed, but has decreased in the northern states. This has to do with what stage of the vote the vote of the Democratic majority can be taken into account in the results. So the question is, does western Arizona follow a pattern further south or north?
- To do this, it is worth seeing what results we expect in Arizona. Arizona’s most populous county, Maricopa (which includes Phoenix), will announce two more ballot results, giving it the most missing votes. One of them arrives at 1 a.m. and is expected to include 248,000 votes cast by letter before election day. Receiving these is likely to increase Biden’s lead, the question of how much, and whether Trump can reverse that with additional votes. We believe that the chances of this are very slim, since the missing votes come from a metropolitan area, the rural ones have already been fully processed. So based on the social pattern of the voting fields, it’s hard to imagine a translation in Arizona.
Work is much tighter In nevada, where Biden leads by 49.3-48.7% with 75% processing, that is, with a generous 7,000 votes. But with more than 400,000 votes still missing, with a bit of simplification, we can say that the one who is in the majority of the votes still counted wins. The majority of the vote is expected to come from Las Vegas, which is a Democratic majority. Additionally, Nevada has made it possible for all citizens to vote by letter and we are only awaiting the results of those votes. At least until tomorrow night, because by then the authorities promise new data.
Therefore, Donald Trump’s chances seem less because in the two states he should be going to, he doesn’t seem to have any chance.
So why don’t we announce a winner? For one thing, since a translation is not an impossible event, it is unlikely. But there is another reason.
Biden’s chances were long boosted by incoming votes from northern states that put a big twist on the job. During the day such a dramatic change took place in Wisconsin and then Michigan, the latter being the event after which the provisional electoral accountant had already shown Bident the winner. So in the case of the rest of Pennsylvania and the southern states (Georgia and North Carolina), the possibility has arisen that the Democrats will eventually turn to the closed position. So, the big picture was that “Arizona and Neveda are already Biden’s, but if they aren’t, Trump is not sure about returning the job, because he can return Biden in three more states, and one is enough to get him back to be in the chair “.
However, it seems that just as Trump’s chances are limited in the West, so is Biden in the East. At least as we slowly progress through the count, Biden’s handicap for translation doesn’t seem to be decreasing enough. Not an impossible event yet, by our calculations all three states are on the verge of translation, but the translation is no longer as clear as it was in Wisconsin or Michigan, where it was possible to predict hours in advance that there would be a translation. The geographic composition of the letter vote and missing votes increases Biden’s chances.
Based on the above, the scenarios are in descending order of probability as follows.
- There will be no changes in any of the states, Biden wins narrowly.
- Biden can still turn one or two places, his victory will be a little more confident.
- Trump hands over one of the western states and with that he wins.
- Trump goes back in vain in the West because Biden does the same in the East.
We stay here, we stay with us, the excitement only intensifies, if that is possible.
Cover image: Drew Angerer / Getty Images
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