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The secret history of the 2018 elections in 84 color pages.
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Joe Biden’s first disappointment of the night could be the Florida result. In the traditionally adjusted state, polls led an average of 2.5 percent before Election Day. Two-thirds of the state’s registered voters cast their ballots in letters, which began accumulating here weeks before Election Day. And because there are 120,000 more registered Democrats than the Republicans who voted in a letter, one might expect that even with relatively high prosecution, the Democratic presidential nominee still leads a lot.
By comparison, based on the processing of 88 percent of the votes, Donald Trump leads by 50.8: 48.3, with a total advantage of nearly 270,000 votes, topping the polls by five percentage points and winning nearly four hundred thousand more votes than they show. preliminary voting data. could be calculated on the basis of.
What can you swim for Florida Biden? About voters of Cuban and Venezuelan descent. Latino voters are superficially classified as Democrats, but it is precisely the Venezuelan and Cuban communities that tend to be more conservative than the average Latino voter, having fled communist countries and chosen the United States as their new homeland. Miami-Dade County, a traditional stronghold of Florida Democrats, is home to a very high proportion of Venezuelan and Cuban immigrants, and this is reflected in the votes:
While Hillary Clinton gained a two-thirds lead here in 2016, based on early results, Biden’s lead is just 9 percentage points, Trump could get 150,000 more votes here than in 2016, when he won the state smoothly anyway. .
Data from two other Florida counties also predict Trump’s victory. While in Pinellas County, Trump now appears to be losing, whereas he was able to win four years ago, but in terms of proportions he was just behind his result four years ago. He was also able to give his results four years ago in Sumter, the oldest middle-aged county in the United States.
What does this mean? In the long run, perhaps, Florida, traditionally volatile, is becoming an increasingly stable Republican state. And what does that mean in this election? Not much yet, Florida’s victory was key only for Trump, he could hardly win if he lost here, but Biden still has a good chance of winning without Florida’s 29 voters.
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