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Modeled by The Economist, President Donald Trump will certainly lose today’s election. Of course, there are uncertainties about the forecast, as the document points out: the polls were expected not to be as wrong this year as they were four years ago; whoever I want to vote for will also participate in the vote; and all mail-in votes are received and counted without a hitch.
The Economist has created a constantly updated model in which, incorporating partial results from the states, we immediately see an updated forecast for the outcome of the elections. The following figure shows the chances that a candidate will win by rolling in each battlefield state.
A victory in Pennsylvania would bode well for Donald Trump’s chances on other northern battlefields https://t.co/3baAaqXY6L
– The Economist) November 3, 2020
According to The Economist, we can expect results soon from Florida and Virginia, where polls close at 1 a.m. Hungarian time, in North Carolina half an hour later. If the preliminary results show that the polls were inaccurate in these states, they will certainly be inaccurate in the other states on the battlefield as well. For example, if Trump rolls in Florida, The Economist says we can expect him to be underestimated in Spanish-speaking states and where there are many white seniors, while if Biden rolls in that state, he will most likely win the election.
We should also hope that the votes cast on Election Day will be more in favor of Trump because the president has asked his supporters to vote in person. Joe Biden leads the ballots, so in states where mail-in ballot results are received later or counted later, Trump may initially have an advantage.
Cover image: Getty Images
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