In four years, will a woman really be president?

In the US presidential election on Tuesday Donald trump starting out as a democrat challenger Joe biden Candidate for Vice Presidency Kamala harris. Harris is only the fourth woman to be nominated for the presidency by a major party (Hillary clinton, 2016) or candidate for vice president (Geraldine ferraro, 1984; Sarah Palin, 2008) and the first of them with colored skin. Harris was born to two immigrants: his mother was an Indian cancer researcher and his father was an economics professor from Jamaica.

Although women in the United States have not even reached the position of vice president, many are already talking about Harris being the first female president of the United States. It’s true that while there’s still a lot of water coming down in Mississippi, Biden, who is celebrating his 78th birthday in November, would likely only take one cycle if he wins the polls.

We looked at the chances of Harris taking his place from the past – that is, who of the 48 vice presidents so far managed to become president.

Let’s start with the numbers. From the vice president so far

• 14 made it to the presidency.
• Ten started as candidates but were eliminated.
• And 22 did not leave, five of them not only because they died during their service.
• Barack Obama Rep. Joe Biden Now Running for Presidential Title, Republican Mike penceAnd on who Trump is as vice president, we don’t know yet if he has presidential candidate plans for 2024.

After World War II, there were 13 vice presidents in the United States, and only three of them (Spiro Agnew, Nelson rockefeller Y Dick cheney), who did not even try to win the support of his party to run for president. Both (Barkley Albums, Dan Quayle) failed because they did not reach the pre-election, but eight won the candidacy. However, only three managed to win an election: Richard Nixonnak, Lyndon B. Johnsonnak and the oldest, which is George HW Bush.

Gerald ford He became president in 1974 after Nixon resigned, but was unable to win the next election in 1976, unlike Johnson, who also became head of state in 1963 without an election afterward. John F. Kennedyt he was assassinated and then the following year voters confirmed his position.

After Trump, Biden may be the oldest sitting US president (in fact, from his eventual inauguration, he will become the oldest resident of the White House), so Kamala Harris, 56, she was chosen in part because of her age. Obama’s vice president called himself a candidate for the transition, and if the Democratic Party did not nominate a younger candidate against Trump, Biden’s oldest rival was the one-year, 78-year-old. Bernie sanders at least prepare the ground for the next generation. And the senator from California belongs to this group. Of course, the election of the Biden-Harris couple would not mean that the latter would automatically become the Democratic presidential candidate in 2024, but that would certainly increase his chances and keep a defeat to a minimum.

However, it can make things more difficult if Democrats are shifting to the left, which is indicated by the fact that Social Democrat Sanders has come twice closer to the presidential bid, and in the current pre-election. Elizabeth warren He also criticized the power of Wall Street in his campaign. Harris does not belong to the left wing of the party, he is a pragmatic candidate who works with the Democratic elite and begins his career as a prosecutor, with whom Biden did not risk losing moderate voters and who can excite black and female voters.

By the way, Harris, who withdrew before the first election in Iowa in January before the first election, may have Biden’s example: In 2008, the current presidential candidate was not the strongest partner alongside Obama, and his presidential candidate campaigns of 1988 and 2008 could not really be named. Steel, the first time it came out even before the pre-election start, but it didn’t get very far twenty years later either. However, after Obama chose him as a partner, he garnered strong support as vice president. And based on survey data, Wednesday night could be the 15th vice president-elect in American history. And Kamala Harris certainly would like to be sixteenth in four years.

Featured Image: Scott Olson / Getty Images / AFP