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Can you redraw the big picture of the presidential election?
The euro-dollar exchange rate rose 4.6% this year, kicking off the process long awaited by analysts, as the US leadership is not much opposed to the dollar weakening. Additionally, President Donald Trump has spoken out against an overly strong national currency in recent years. It is a question of how much the result of the presidential elections is priced at the current exchange rate. Polls suggest that Democratic candidate Joe Biden may end Trump’s presidency, but in recent days the gap has narrowed again in some major states on the battlefield.
Four years ago, we saw Trump’s electoral victory trigger a strong strengthening of the dollar in the market, with the price of the euro-dollar falling from about 1.12 to 1.05. However, the effect did not last long. It is a question of whether we can now expect a similar, even temporary, weakening of the dollar.
Commerzbank analysts say that if the scenario now considered most likely arrives and Biden defeats Trump, then an equally intense impact on the market is not expectedGiven that today the victory of the Democratic candidate today would not be a surprise, the polls now predict it. On the other hand, apart from the strengthening of the dollar a few weeks ago four years ago, the Trump presidency was more marked by the weakening of the US currency.
What can presidential elections bring?
- What if Biden really wins?
- A tie would be the worst for all
- Do you need to buy dollars now?
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