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In early October, the world’s leading epidemic modelers at the Institute for Health Measurement and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington outlined a rather ominous picture of the expected development of the epidemic situation in Hungary. Recent infection and mortality figures actually show an even worse situation: twice as many people have died in recent days than expected in the worst case scenario. However, the basic lineup was not reassuring either: At the epidemic peak expected for late November, 220 people a day were expected.
It is not an omnipotent but important prognostic tool that uses epidemiological models based on purely mathematical calculations, using IHME, using and weighting the population, changes in data from previous infections and other variables (for example, general mortality rates, effectiveness existing restrictions).
It cannot take into account factors such as the psychological implications of the discipline of wearing masks or the behavior of participants in mass events, or how and to what extent those in a closed space interact with each other. This is specifically a mathematical prediction that is based on past experiences, but it has also recently projected an accurate picture of the epidemic situation in the United States, which is the most infected country in the world at the moment.
More recently, on October 22, they updated their model for Hungary, which makes a forecast in three aspects: if the use of a mask becomes mandatory, if everything remains as it is and if it facilitates regulation. Based on this, five days ago it was predicted that on Tuesday 31.78 deaths would be whatever the scenario that materialized. In such a short period of time, it makes no difference according to the model if they tighten, but not even if restrictions are lifted or people’s discipline deteriorates. This is because the symptoms of Covid-19 can take up to 10 days to appear, and the process until death can take more than two weeks from the appearance of the virus.
In Hungary, however, according to the latest data, 63 people died on Tuesday morning, according to data from the last 24 hours. The seven-day moving average is also 46.3. This is a difference of nearly 150 percent based on IHME forecasts when looking at the moving average, but it is also twice the daily data with no expected issues.
Below is a graph of the most infected and averaged deaths in the world for countries in the region:
If we look at the models of the Washington organization, the situation is not rosy in the first place: in a month, on November 27, 115 deaths a day are expected if people do not become more woody, but the government does not introduce new austerity, even if discipline is relaxed. In the next few days, 120.61 deaths are likely.
The peak of the epidemic is thus expected for mid-December, if everything continues as it is, 144.2 people would die every day, if the situation deteriorates in terms of defense, the peak could reach mid-January with 516.94 deaths daily. If the use of masks were universal wherever there are people in an airspace, the curve would flatten only at the height of December 20, but mortality between 77 and 78 would be maximum in 24-hour intervals.
However, if we correct these data with the 150 percent difference, which is also evident in the last 5 days, the peak of the epidemic according to the worst case scenario would move to the peak of February 10, when the daily mortality would be 213 ,4. But if the IHME accidentally overestimated the deterioration of the epidemic situation in Hungary to the same extent, it would peak at Christmas, it could be 89.58 deaths per day.
The IHME issued an even more pessimistic forecast in early October, with the peak of daily deaths based on trends at the time set for November 19, when more than 210 were expected to die as a result of Covid-19. It’s a matter of how more accurate your calculations have become, as more and more historical data is available since the start of the second wave in early fall. In the case of spring curfews, they were within 5 percent of reality at the end of April, and from there they were able to give an accurate forecast.
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