The ruling party was able to increase its field even in the first wave of the epidemic, although many of the newcomers withdrew. Jobbik has the support of several people, Momentum has a little less support, the situation in DK has not changed. These are the preferences of the October party, according to Závecz Research.

The ruling party’s field grew from 31 to 36 percent between March and August, but has since fallen 4 percentage points in two months; Fidesz’s support in October is 32 percent of the total electorate, according to a survey conducted by the Závecz Research Institute (ZRI) in the first half of October among the country’s adult population *.

As in previous months, DK is still at 10 percent. Momentum and Jobbik have been competing for third place for a long time, and their support has changed a bit. Jobbik’s field changed from September 6 to 7 percent and Momentum’s from 7 to 6 percent. The MSZP stands at 5 percent, as in previous months. Four parties are equally represented, LMP, Diálogo, Nuestro País and the Partido del Perro de Dos Talas have 2-2 percent, according to Závecz. The nonpartisan proportion is 31 percent.

In the group of safe partisan voters, Fidesz has 49 percent, followed by DK with 17 percent.

According to the research, Jobbik and Momentum have the support of 10-10 percent of active voters. The MSZP is 6 percent in the group of engaged voters, while Nuestro País, the LMP, the Two-Tailed Dog Party and the Dialogue reach 2-2 percent in this round as well.

According to the data, during the first wave of the coronavirus epidemic, Fidesz’s voter base increased, especially among those living in rural cities, graduates and those under 40, with an expansion of more than 15 percentage points in each. However, the ruling party was unable to retain all of its new voters in these groups, and their positions deteriorated compared to August.

The size of the Fidesz field in rural cities decreased by 8 percentage points during this time, although it decreased by the same amount in Budapest.

In the villages, on the other hand, there was one more percentage point of supporters of the ruling party. As a result of these changes, Závecz points out, Fidesz’s integration is far from uniform in terms of the type of settlement: 26 percent in Budapest, 31 percent in rural cities, and 37 percent in villages.

The high support of Fidesz also did not remain among the graduates, it has lost 16 percentage points since August. Among those with a vocational education and a high school diploma, the decline was about average – 6 and 4%, and among those with a primary education, the Fidesz camp expanded by 7 percentage points. Due to the amendments, the party’s support differs quite a lot in individual educational groups, decreasing with its increase: 38 percent of those with primary education, 33 percent of those with vocational qualifications, 28 percent of graduates and 26 percent of graduates, said the ZRI.

Among those under 40, the ruling party has lost 9 percentage points since the summer, among those over only 2 percentage points. Závecz puts it this way: this is how the previous peculiarity was restored, among young people, Fidesz is weaker than the average, 25 percent.

Support for the ruling party among safe party voters has not declined statistically since August. This is because their voters are much more active than average. In October, 61 percent of Fidesz voters promised a safe turnout, while the combined turnout of supporters from the other parties was 55 percent.

The current mood of the public is cloudy, with 57 percent of voters saying that things are bad in Hungary.

The proportion of optimists is 33 percent. As always, political affiliation is basically determined by political affiliation. The majority of pro-government voters, 81 percent, evaluate the situation in Hungary positively, while 14 percent negatively. 95 percent of opposition voters see unfavorable developments, as do 61 percent of nonpartisan voters (3 and 13 percent gave a favorable evaluation, respectively).

* Sampling from October 5 to 15, 2020. by personal contact of 1,000 Hungarian citizens over 18 years of age. According to Závecz, the selection of respondents is carried out through the so-called stratified sampling in two stages, a method that guarantees complete randomness.


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