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This week the news came that Máté Kocsis, Sára Botond, the government commissioner in charge of the capital’s government office, could replace the leader of the Fidesz faction, while Balázs Fürjes, Budapest’s secretary of state for development, you could run for 20 individual Fidesz-KDNP candidates. . But Balázs Bús was also launched, Mayor Fidesz de Óbuda, who said he would like to start in his district, of which his party partner, Finance Minister Mihály Varga, is a deputy. ATV.hu learned from pro-government sources and from Fidesz that no more ministers will compete individually. Officially to aid the campaign in full force, but it could be more about “rescuing” front-line pro-government politicians.
In the 2018 parliamentary elections, Gergely Gulyás won a seat in the third individual electoral district in Budapest, and Máté Kocsis won a seat in the sixth individual electoral district.
According to data from valasztas.hu, Gergely Gulyás obtained 23,173 votes, closely followed by Tamás Bauer of the DK, who obtained 21,176 votes. Barely two thousand is the difference in votes. Mária Hajdu of the LMP was voted in 3787, Márton Gyöngyösi of Jobbik in 3142 and Áron Barnabás Kádár at the time in 1449.
Even if the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party was not a coalition party (prank party co-chair Gergely Kovács was supported in 1530), if a joint opposition candidate had opposed it, Gergely Gulyás might have failed. easily in the constituency.
The full picture includes the fact that in the municipal elections of 2019, the XII. Zoltán Pokorni retained his mayor seat in the district. The district’s top pro-government politician has received 16,462 votes since 2006, with 11,171 voting for Norbert Heő and 11,171 for the joint candidate Momentum – DK – MSZP – Dialogue – LMP. However, it should be added that the individual electoral districts of Parliament do not overlap with the districts; individual electoral district No. 3 in Budapest belongs to XII. and partly in Part II. district, so the comparison limps a bit.
In the 2018 elections, Máté Kocsis won the elections in the sixth individual constituency with 18,818 votes. Attila Ara-Kovács of the SE obtained 14,947 votes, Dora Dúró of Dobbó 6001, Tamás Jakabfy of LMP 2582, Krisztina Baranyi 1454 as TOTAL candidate and Katalin Cseh of the 1190 momentary votes. Based on the mathematics, it is also clear here that a joint opposition candidate has a realistic chance of winning the constituency of the ruling parties.
Although the district does not mean in this case a district of Budapest, it is not a negligible fact that in the municipal elections of 2019 the VIII. district (Józsefváros) and IX. District (Ferencváros) also an opposition candidate, András Pikó and Krisztina Baranyi won the mayoral elections. Pikó received 11,241 votes, while Sára Botond received 10,972 votes. The latter became mayor in the interim elections in Józsefváros in July 2018, after Kocsis took a seat as an individual member of parliament in April and resigned as mayor, as municipal and parliamentary terms are incompatible. By the way, Sara had a resounding victory at that time, with a low turnout, 8269 people voted for her, only Péter Győri, who was supported by all the left opposition (LMP, Momentum, Diálogo, MSZP, DK, Liberals, Solidarity ) and supported by local civilians, only 4,787 were voted.
In Ferencváros, Baranyi (12,188 votes), supported by Momentum – DK – MSZP – Dialogue – LMP, beat János Bácskai (8376 votes), who led the IX. district.
The opposition cooperation model is working
The results of the 2019 municipal elections showed that if a joint candidate is nominated, the opposition parties can defeat the Fidesz-KDNP. At the head of Budapest, Gergely Karácsony replaced István Tarlós, as well as fourteen districts of Budapest (I., II., III., IV., VI., VII., VIII., IX., XI., XIII., XIV., XV., XVIII., XIX.), And became the mayor of ten counties with county status. This is a signal for both the opposition and the government ahead of the 2022 parliamentary elections.
The two main tests of the increasingly close cooperation of the opposition (DK – Momentum – Jobbik – MSZP – LMP – Dialogue) were the provisional elections in Dunaújváros and Borsod. The first was won by Gergely Kálló, a rightist supported by the opposition, without the government side launching its own candidate. Dunaújváros can be said to be an opposition stronghold, as Tamás Pintér de Jobbik, an opposition-backed candidate, also won the mayor’s seat in the municipal elections prior to the interim.
In individual constituency No. 6, based in Tiszaújváros, Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén county, the opposition victory could not be repeated. With this, the alliance has apparently failed, but in light of the figures, the cooperation model does not appear to be doomed. In the elections, both the ruling party and the opposition mobilized their resources, and the close result reflects exactly that. Fidesz’s Zsófia Koncz won with 17,597 votes, but László Bíró, a Jobbik biker, supported by the opposition, was barely behind. The difference is 1722 votes.
It is possible to examine what the opposition may have made a mistake in this campaign, or what the government side needed for this victory, but it can be seen that in 2022, the fight with the opposition may be more balanced than at any time since 2010.
Nor is it by chance that, in 106 electoral districts, neither the government side nor the opposition can concentrate their resources in one place. This will have a decisive impact on the odds of the constituency.
They may be aware of this on the part of the government, and may even justify the “evacuation” of Fidesz-KDNP front-line politicians from riskier constituencies.
The government side can destabilize its voters
It would be unpleasant for a member of the government to defeat the Fidesz-KDNP, and with a common candidate, the opposition has a chance in all electoral districts of Budapest.
– says András Vermes, an analyst at the Center for Equity Policy Analysis, to the index that Máté Kocsis and Gergely Gulyás would not run individually in the 2022 elections either.
According to András Vermes, Fidesz can expect losses in weaker districts based on its internal measurements, so the resignation of government members from the beginning can be part of the central strategy, not individual decisions.
In fact, people who are not individuals are not at risk of being excluded from the front line of politics, as there are currently several key members of the government who have won a list of seats or are not members of parliament.
The analyst points out. An example of this is that in the 2018 elections, Péter Szijjártó, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, and Antal Rogán, Chief of Staff of the Prime Minister, did not run individually either, they were given a definitive place on the national Fidesz list .
However, according to András Vermes, withdrawing from the electoral front line can also send a bad message to pro-government voters, as Fidesz’s top politicians do not undergo the test in 2022, and more recently won a divided opposition, which They demonstrate the legitimacy of the opposition coalition, and also indirectly acknowledge the lack of self-confidence of the ruling parties.
(Cover image: Gergely Gulyás. Photo: Tamás Kovács / MTI)
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